Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FELICIA-21
Off-shore
15 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FELICIA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 8 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (15 Jul 16:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 108 km/h 0.2 m 256 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 58 km/h 0.4 m 748 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

58 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 5Mexico7,535 
CAT. 4Mexico121 
CAT. 3Mexico04 
CAT. 2Mexico11 
CAT. 1Mexico02 
Tropical StormMexico24 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Jul 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Jul 2021 00:00 - Few people
United States
GREEN 3 14 Jul 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Jul 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Jul 2021 12:00 - 8 thousand
Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmUnited States4,235 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Jul 2021 12:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Jul 2021 00:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Jul 2021 12:00 266 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Jul 2021 00:00 316 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 15 Jul 2021 12:00 310 -
- - - - - United States




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Jul 2021 16:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Jul 2021 16:45 Marmol Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 16:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 17:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 16:45 Dimas Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 17:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 17:45 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 17:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 17:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 17:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Kahakuloa United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Maalaea United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Waihee United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Hyashi Village United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Wailuku United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Kahului United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Kihei United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Puunene United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Village Eight United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Hawaiian Village United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Paia United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Haiku United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Pauwela United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 20:00 Ulumalu United States  0.2
15 Jul 2021 16:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 16:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 16:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 16:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2021 16:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 16:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 16:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 23:30 Olowalu United States  0.1
15 Jul 2021 23:30 Keawakapu United States  0.1
15 Jul 2021 23:30 Makena United States  0.1
15 Jul 2021 23:30 Ulupalakua United States  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2021 17:15 El Tule Mexico  0.1