Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IGNACIO-21
Off-shore
02 Aug 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IGNACIO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (02 Aug 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 130 km/h 0.5 m 298 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 0.6 m 629 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico5,083 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 01 Aug 2021 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 02 Aug 2021 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 02 Aug 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Mexico
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

629 mm

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico10,593 
50-100 mmMexico653,470 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 01 Aug 2021 18:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 02 Aug 2021 00:00 214 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 02 Aug 2021 06:00 550 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 02 Aug 2021 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Aug 2021 11:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.5
02 Aug 2021 06:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.3
02 Aug 2021 11:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.3
02 Aug 2021 11:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
02 Aug 2021 11:45 Cedros Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 10:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 10:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 06:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 11:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 11:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Dimas Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Marmol Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Florida Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:45 La Paz Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:45 Rosario Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 10:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 10:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 11:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 11:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 11:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 11:15 Cunano Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:00 Quinones Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 06:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:45 Datilito Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 07:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
02 Aug 2021 09:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 12:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 12:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 11:45 Chola Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 10:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 10:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 10:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 10:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 10:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 07:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 06:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 08:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 07:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 07:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
02 Aug 2021 09:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1