Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IGNACIO-21
Off-shore
03 Aug 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IGNACIO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (03 Aug 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 119 km/h 0.6 m 131 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 151 km/h 0.6 m 629 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico29,098 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 01 Aug 2021 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 02 Aug 2021 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 02 Aug 2021 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 02 Aug 2021 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 03 Aug 2021 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 03 Aug 2021 06:00 119 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

629 mm

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico49,091 
50-100 mmMexico820,461 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 01 Aug 2021 18:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 02 Aug 2021 00:00 214 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 02 Aug 2021 06:00 298 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 02 Aug 2021 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Aug 2021 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 03 Aug 2021 00:00 233 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 03 Aug 2021 06:00 381 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Aug 2021 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Aug 2021 08:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.6
03 Aug 2021 08:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.4
03 Aug 2021 13:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.3
03 Aug 2021 08:30 Cedros Mexico  0.3
04 Aug 2021 04:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.3
03 Aug 2021 12:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.3
05 Aug 2021 08:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.3
05 Aug 2021 06:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 04:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 04:30 El Barril Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 21:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 11:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 11:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 20:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 08:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 18:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 18:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 04:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 04:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 04:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 11:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 11:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 02:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 02:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 02:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 08:30 San Blas Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 08:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 08:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 08:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 08:45 Monteon Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 08:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 08:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 18:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 18:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 02:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 02:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 18:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 18:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 20:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 Empalme Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 08:30 La Lima Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 Datilito Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 06:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 21:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 21:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:30 Mulege Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 22:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 22:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 22:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 22:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 07:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 04:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 20:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 04:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 04:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 19:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 07:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 07:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 13:15 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 22:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 22:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 10:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 06:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 22:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 22:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 06:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 06:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 14:15 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 19:30 San Jose Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 19:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 14:15 Quinones Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 15:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 22:30 Dimas Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 Ligui Mexico  0.2
04 Aug 2021 03:45 Tripui Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 11:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 07:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
06 Aug 2021 03:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 20:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 06:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
05 Aug 2021 07:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 09:45 Marmol Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 09:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 09:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 20:00 Liliba Mexico  0.2
03 Aug 2021 20:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 03:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 12:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 21:45 Barron Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 16:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
05 Aug 2021 06:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
05 Aug 2021 06:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 20:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 14:30 Cunano Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 14:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 12:00 Chamela Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 10:15 Corrales Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 10:15 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 10:15 Ipala Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 22:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 22:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 22:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 22:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 08:15 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
05 Aug 2021 06:15 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 22:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 04:00 La Playa Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 22:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
05 Aug 2021 16:45 El Tule Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 10:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 20:45 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
03 Aug 2021 18:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
04 Aug 2021 05:45 Pizota Mexico  0.1