Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
09 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (10 Sep 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 97 km/h 0.8 m 232 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

Up to 320 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico318,311 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico733 
100-250 mmMexico437,777 
50-100 mmMexico361,374 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 00:00 229 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 07 Sep 2021 12:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 09 Sep 2021 00:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 12:00 278 440 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.8
10 Sep 2021 20:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.8
10 Sep 2021 20:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.8
10 Sep 2021 11:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:45 Cunano Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 16:15 Quinones Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 12:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 12:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 23:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 23:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 21:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:15 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 01:15 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 02:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 16:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:45 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 23:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 04:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 04:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 13:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 13:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 13:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 00:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 20:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 15:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 06:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 07:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Chamela Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 14:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 03:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 09:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 03:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 04:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 16:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 16:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Joluta Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Ipala Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 14:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 14:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Santiago Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 14:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:45 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:00 Calvario Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 00:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1