Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
09 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (10 Sep 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 104 km/h 0.3 m 181 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 169 km/h 0.6 m 647 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

169 km/h

Up to 200 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico200,912 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico167 
100-250 mmMexico341,037 
50-100 mmMexico7,978 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 290 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 168 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 429 340 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 02:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:30 La Choya Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 20:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 07:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 03:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 03:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:45 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 03:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 03:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 03:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:45 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Molino Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 03:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 04:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 10:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 10:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 10:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 04:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:45 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 Mulege Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 11:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 01:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 01:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:45 Santiago Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:45 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1