Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
09 Sep 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (11 Sep 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 133 km/h 0.4 m 262 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 169 km/h 0.6 m 647 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

169 km/h

Up to 190 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico194,222 
Tropical StormMexico469,357 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 144 190 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMexico00
+
250-500 mmMexico149,809 
100-250 mmMexico226,791 
50-100 mmMexico18,060 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 290 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 168 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 181 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 548 380 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 11 Sep 2021 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Sep 2021 02:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.4
11 Sep 2021 02:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.4
11 Sep 2021 02:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 El Tule Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:15 La Choya Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 02:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:45 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:30 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 07:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:15 Cunano Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:00 La Lima Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 01:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Molino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 06:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 17:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 10:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 10:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 20:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 10:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 10:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 04:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 02:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 21:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 21:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 21:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 20:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 20:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 01:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 23:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 13:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 23:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 12:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 Barron Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 11:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 13:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 11:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 11:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:45 Santiago Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1