Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICHOLAS-21
in United States

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (14 Sep 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 1.1 m 238 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 1.3 m 349 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 5 14 Sep 2021 00:00 83 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 6 14 Sep 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmUnited States1,611 
250-500 mmUnited States153,238 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico3,787,447
+
United States3,491,608 
Mexico295,838 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua12,516,141
+
United States10,613,485 
Mexico1,323,220 
Guatemala117,823 
Honduras433,176 
Nicaragua28,435 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2021 00:00 177 140 thousand
- - - - Mexico, El Salvador
Blue 2 12 Sep 2021 12:00 248 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 199 40 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 4 13 Sep 2021 12:00 154 250 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 5 14 Sep 2021 00:00 227 590 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Nicaragua
Blue 6 14 Sep 2021 12:00 608 3.9 million
- - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Cedar Point, United States. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2021 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Sep 2021 12:30 Cedar Point United States  1.1
14 Sep 2021 12:30 Beach City United States  1.1
14 Sep 2021 12:30 Oak Island United States  1.1
14 Sep 2021 12:30 Anahuac United States  1.1
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Webster United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Clear Lake City United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Nassau Bay United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Kilkare United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Lakeside United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Taylor Lake United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 La Porte United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 El Lago United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Clear Lake Shores United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Kemah United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Shoreacres United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Bayside Terrace United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Todville United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Morgan's Point United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Bayview United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Red Bluff United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Seabrook United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Morgan Point United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Baytown United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Bacliff United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Pelly United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 San Leon United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Smith Point United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Elmgrove United States  1.0
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Flake United States  0.8
15 Sep 2021 09:30 Cypremort Point United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 09:30 Weeks United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 09:15 Louisa United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 09:15 Ivanhoe United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 08:30 Florence United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 08:30 Cote Blanche Landing United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 08:30 Freetown United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 08:30 Gordy United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 08:30 South Bend United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 08:30 Burns United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 17:30 Nadeau United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 17:30 Texas City Junction United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 17:30 Bayou Vista United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 17:30 Texas City United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 17:30 Port Bolivar United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 17:30 Fort Travis United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 09:30 Intracoastal City United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Patton United States  0.7
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Ellerstie United States  0.7
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Fivemile Oaks United States  0.6
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Sabine United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Sabine Pass United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Caplen United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Gilchrist United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Sea Isle United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Hitchcock United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Virginia Point United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Galveston United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 22:00 Cheniere Au Tigre United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:45 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 13:00 Constance Beach United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 13:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 18:30 Holly Beach United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 18:30 Cameron United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 12:00 High Island United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 18:30 Oak Grove United States  0.5
14 Sep 2021 20:15 Grand Chenier United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Ansley United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Bayside Park United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Lakeshore United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Klin United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Kiln United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Shoreline Park United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Silver Creek Acres United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Waveland United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Fenton United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Diamondhead United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Bay St Louis United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Henderson Point United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 De Lisle United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Pass Christian United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Cuevas United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 White Harbor United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 Howze Beach United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 Greens Ditch United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 Fort Pike United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 Lake Catherine United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 White Kitchen United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 Riolets United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 Pearlington United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 North Side United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 Jackson Landing United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 03:45 English Lookout United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 04:00 Martello Castle United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 04:00 Chef Menteur United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 04:00 Shell Beach United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 04:00 Alluvial City United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 04:00 Yscloskey United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 04:00 Hopedale United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 04:00 Saint Malo United States  0.4
14 Sep 2021 21:45 Happy Jack United States  0.4
14 Sep 2021 21:45 Potash United States  0.4
16 Sep 2021 00:45 Bassa Bassa United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 00:45 West Pointe A la Hache United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 00:45 Grand Ecaille United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Long Beach United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Gulfport United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 01:45 Cocodrie United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 22:00 Hesperides United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 22:00 Nairn United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 22:00 Empire United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 01:45 Leeville United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Mississippi City United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Handsboro United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Bayleys Corner United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Navco United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Bellefontaine United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Mertz United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Chickasaw United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Cox United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Mobile United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Magazine United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Battles Wharf United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Blakeley United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Bridgehead United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Jackson Oak United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Park City United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Fairhope United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Point Clear United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Houstonville United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Montrose United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Buzbee Landing United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Seacliff United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Daphne United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 12:45 Spanish Fort United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 02:15 Edgewater Park United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 02:15 Beauvoir United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Hoskins United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Peterson Landing United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Port Morris United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Red Fish Cove United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 21:30 Sunrise United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 21:30 Buras United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 21:30 Ostrica United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 21:30 Neptune United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 21:30 Fort Jackson United States  0.3
14 Sep 2021 21:30 Boothville United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 11:30 Mon Louis United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 11:30 Darling Landing United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 11:30 Bryant Landing United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 11:30 Foots Landing United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 11:30 Barnwell United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 11:30 Turkey Branch United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 11:30 Yupon United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 05:45 Loraine United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 05:45 Wool Market United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 05:45 Cedar Lake United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 05:45 Biloxi United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 05:45 D'Iberville United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 05:45 Saint Martin United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Ocean Springs United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Gulf Hills United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 02:00 Port Fourchon United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Gulf Park Estates United States  0.3
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Hilda United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:00 West Point United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 11:00 Delchamps United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 11:00 Heron Bay United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 11:00 Alabama Port United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Duvic United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:15 Breton United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Gautier United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Pascagoula United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Moss Point United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Quintana United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Surfside United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Mims United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Hoskins United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Valasco Heights United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Freeport United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 22:30 Madisonville United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 22:30 Houltonville United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 22:30 Lewisburg United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 22:30 Chinchuba United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 22:30 Mandeville United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 22:30 Big Branch United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Gulf Park United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 13:15 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 13:15 Palacios United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 13:15 Collegeport United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 13:15 Simpsonville United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 13:15 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 13:15 Matagorda United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 01:15 Frenier United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 01:15 Ruddock United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 01:15 La Branche United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 01:15 Kenner United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 16:00 Holly Beach United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 16:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 16:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 16:00 Port Isabel United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 16:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 16:00 South Padre Island United States  0.2
14 Sep 2021 16:00 Boca Chica United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 03:30 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2021 03:30 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2021 22:00 El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
16 Sep 2021 05:15 Dauphin Island United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 05:15 Fort Gaines United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 05:15 Fort Morgan United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 05:15 Gulf Highlands United States  0.2
16 Sep 2021 09:30 Cedar Grove United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 09:30 Gasque United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 09:30 Magnolia Springs United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 09:30 Oyster Bay United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 09:30 Bon Secaur United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 16:30 Buena Vista United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 16:30 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 22:00 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2021 04:00 Bayou La Batre United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 04:00 Coden United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 04:00 Nelson United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 12:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Corozo Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Cabeza de Vaca Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Baranca Belize  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 San Juan Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Cocoli Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Buena Vista Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Livingston Guatemala  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 La Chacara Nicaragua  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 El Capulin Nicaragua  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Condega Honduras  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Cedeno Honduras  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Mangle Alto Nicaragua  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Albania Honduras  0.1
15 Sep 2021 03:15 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 12:00 Chinquapin United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 El Puente Nicaragua  0.1
16 Sep 2021 06:00 Las Pozas Nicaragua  0.1
17 Sep 2021 11:00 Dekle Beach United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Macho Creek Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Santo Tomas de Castilla Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Punta Manabique Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Barrios Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Cambalache Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Piedra Parada Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Corozo Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 La Graciosa Guatemala  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:45 Machacal Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:00 South Point United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 18:00 Plum Orchard United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 18:00 Mandalay United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Saint Marks United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Port Leon United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Newport United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 03:00 Ejido Guandalupe Victoria Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 03:15 Los Ebanos Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 13:15 Carancahua United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 13:15 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 04:00 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2021 04:00 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2021 04:00 Victoria Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2021 12:15 Yarborough United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 18:45 Balantanche Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 01:30 Metairie United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 01:30 Oak Ridge Park United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 12:00 El Martillo United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Cerny Heights United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Bellview United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Myrtle Grove United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Fort Barrancas United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Warrington United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 West Pensacola United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Sanders Beach United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Pensacola United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Goulding United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Ferry Pass United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Riverview United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Gulf Breeze United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Gaberonne United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Floridatown United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Yniestra United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Gulf Beach United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Villa Sabine United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Mulat United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Avalon Beach United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Oriole Beach United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Tiger Point United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Woodlawn Beach United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Ward Basin United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 03:30 El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 18:30 Campeche Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Surf United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Panacea United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Medart United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Sun N Sand Beaches United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Skipper United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Live Oak Island United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Hyde Park United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 17:45 Wakulla Beach United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 20:30 Cattle Landing Belize  0.1
15 Sep 2021 19:45 Port Arthur United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 19:45 Griffing Park United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 19:45 Groves United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 19:45 Lakeview United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 19:45 Atreco United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 19:45 Bridge City United States  0.1
14 Sep 2021 19:15 El Americano Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Pine Bluff United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 04:45 Cheniere Caminada United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 04:45 Grand Isle United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Holley United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 East Bay United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 15:15 Navarre United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 00:00 Colonia Simon Bolivar Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 00:00 Ejido Lavaderos Mexico  0.1