Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (13 Oct 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 86 km/h 0.4 m 107 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 0.4 m 440 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

130 km/h

Up to 1.7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico1,711,348
+
United States708,103 
Mexico1,003,245 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 112 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,037,036
+
United States225,789 
Mexico811,247 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico9,207,327
+
United States8,742,414 
Mexico464,912 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 142 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 414 1 million
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Gloria, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 21:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 21:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 21:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 04:30 Matagorda United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 04:30 Chinquapin United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Dimas Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:45 Riviera United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:45 Vattman United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:45 Loyola Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:45 Orange Grove United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:45 La Parra Landing United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 02:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Spanish Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Austwell United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Seadrift United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 North Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Gardendale United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Doyle United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Orange Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Portland United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Gregory United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Estes United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Rockport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Copano Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Fulton United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Lamar United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 08:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Carancahua United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Palacios United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Collegeport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Simpsonville United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 02:00 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 02:00 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 02:00 Long Mott United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Indianola United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Olivia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Weedhaven United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Port Alto United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:30 La Choya Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:30 Port Aransas United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Yarborough United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:30 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:45 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:45 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:45 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:45 City Arroyo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Buena Vista United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1