Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARL-22
in Mexico
11 Oct 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (11 Oct 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.2 m 60 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 76 km/h 0.5 m 489 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 11 Oct 2022 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Panama588,458
+
Mexico587,555 
Panama902 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama6,052,196
+
United States1,068,926 
Mexico2,741,563 
Guatemala471,209 
Nicaragua146,996 
El Salvador13,838 
Colombia76,993 
Costa Rica346,993 
Panama1,185,675 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 11 Oct 2022 18:00 559 590 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Las Barrillas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2022 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Las Barrillas Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 22:30 Tenixtepec Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Champoton Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Haltunchen Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Salinas Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Alvarado Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:30 Sanchez Magallanes Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Neyac Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Hoquel Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Chenkan Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Noham Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Seybaplaya Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 21:00 Francisco I. Madero Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 21:00 Monte de Oro Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Campeche Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Valton Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 21:15 Tamiahua Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 21:15 Laja Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Sabancuy Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 21:30 San Pedro Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 23:45 Guerrero Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 19:45 Conejo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 23:30 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 23:30 Paso Real Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:30 Hidalgo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:00 Tonala Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 23:00 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 23:30 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 23:30 Primero de Mayo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 23:30 Tampico Alta Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Tecolutla Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Real de Salinas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Celestum Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:15 La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Nautla Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:45 El Tular Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:45 El Naranjal Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:15 Veracruz Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:00 Port Isabel United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:00 South Padre Island United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:00 Boca Chica United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Cocoli Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Buena Vista Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Livingston Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Macho Creek Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Punta Manabique Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Puerto Barrios Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Cambalache Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Corozo Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 La Graciosa Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Peary Place United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:45 Monkey River Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:45 Alabama Wharf Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:45 Maya Beach Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:15 El Laurel Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Colonia Simon Bolivar Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 Ejido Lavaderos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:45 El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:45 Chiltepec Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Ferguson Bank Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:15 Belize City Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 El Martillo United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Yarborough United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Maudlowe United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Spanish Village United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Austwell United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Seadrift United States  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:30 Puerto Santo Tomas de Castilla Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:30 Piedra Parada Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:30 Machacal Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:30 San Francisco del Mar Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:45 Amerisco Nicaragua  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:45 Buena Vista Nicaragua  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:45 Fruta de Pan Nicaragua  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:45 America Nicaragua  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:00 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Barra Costa Rica  0.1
11 Oct 2022 23:15 Colorado Costa Rica  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:30 Gales Point Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:30 Mullins Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 20:30 Stann Creek Town Belize  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Ejido Guandalupe Victoria Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:30 Cabeza de Vaca Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:30 Baranca Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:30 San Juan Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2022 21:15 Cattle Landing Belize  0.1
11 Oct 2022 19:30 Barra de Chapagua Honduras  0.1
11 Oct 2022 19:30 Santa Rosa Aguan Honduras  0.1
11 Oct 2022 19:30 Limon Honduras  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:15 Caibarien Cuba  0.1
11 Oct 2022 22:15 Dolores Cuba  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Ninayeri Nicaragua  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Ledakura Nicaragua  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Graytown Nicaragua  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Awastara Nicaragua  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Fort Sherman Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Fuerte Sherman Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Cristoba Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Colon Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Rainbow City Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Coco Solo Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Cativa Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Bahia Las Minas Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Sabanita Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Puerto Pilon Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Villa Alondra Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Maria Chiquita Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Marco Antonio Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Guanche Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Iguanita Panama  0.1
12 Oct 2022 00:00 Buenaventura Panama  0.1