Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARL-22
in Mexico
16 Oct 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h n.a. 75 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 76 km/h 0.5 m 489 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 11 Oct 2022 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Oct 2022 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 12 Oct 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 12 Oct 2022 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 12 Oct 2022 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 13 Oct 2022 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 13 Oct 2022 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 13 Oct 2022 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 13 Oct 2022 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Oct 2022 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 14 Oct 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 14 Oct 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 14 Oct 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 15 Oct 2022 00:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 15 Oct 2022 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 15 Oct 2022 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 15 Oct 2022 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 16 Oct 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Costa Rica, Panama1,660,117
+
Mexico1,299,852 
Costa Rica57,605 
Panama302,659 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama10,866,548
+
United States93,685 
Mexico7,809,644 
Guatemala165,504 
El Salvador167,586 
Costa Rica2,112,935 
Panama517,192 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 11 Oct 2022 18:00 60 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 12 Oct 2022 00:00 150 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 12 Oct 2022 06:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 12 Oct 2022 12:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 12 Oct 2022 18:00 111 -
- - - - - United States, Panama
Blue 6 13 Oct 2022 00:00 69 -
- - - - - United States, Panama
Blue 7 13 Oct 2022 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 13 Oct 2022 12:00 198 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 13 Oct 2022 18:00 167 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 14 Oct 2022 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 14 Oct 2022 06:00 30 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 14 Oct 2022 12:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 14 Oct 2022 18:00 64 -
- - - - - Costa Rica, Panama
Blue 14 15 Oct 2022 00:00 52 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 15 15 Oct 2022 06:00 55 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 15 Oct 2022 12:00 81 -
- - - - - Panama
Blue 17 15 Oct 2022 18:00 69 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 18 16 Oct 2022 00:00 311 900 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC
    

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