Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
20 Oct 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (20 Oct 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 0.2 m 101 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 0.4 m 415 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

173 km/h

Up to 960 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico23,353 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico955,648
+
United States539,220 
Mexico416,428 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 176 20 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmHonduras167,967 
100-250 mmMexico, Honduras2,967,595
+
Mexico1,371,279 
Honduras1,596,315 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador2,511,461
+
Mexico910,087 
Honduras640,004 
Guatemala961,270 
El Salvador99 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 131 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 147 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 450 3.1 million
- - - Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Boqueron, Mexico. This height is estimated for 20 Oct 2022 23:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20 Oct 2022 23:30 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:30 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:30 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Guerrero El Salvador  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 El Capulin Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 El Ajustillo Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Puerto Grande Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Gualora Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Las Piletas Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 El Moray Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Estero del Espino Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Campamento Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 El Hato Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Barrancones Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Cedeno Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 18:00 Condega Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 18:00 Mangle Alto Nicaragua  0.2
20 Oct 2022 18:00 Albania Honduras  0.2
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 21:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:00 Las Pozas Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:00 La Chacara Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:00 El Capulin Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:45 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:45 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:00 Buena Vista Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:00 El Tambor Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:00 El Puente Nicaragua  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Victoria Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Balchacah Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:30 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Canton Pimiental El Salvador  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 La Herradura El Salvador  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 El Zapote El Salvador  0.1
20 Oct 2022 21:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:30 El Carmen Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:00 Conchaguita El Salvador  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 19:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Jiquilillo Nicaragua  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Petacaltepe Nicaragua  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Aposentillo Nicaragua  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 El Fortin Nicaragua  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Fatima Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:15 El Tanque Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:15 Arista Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Arrozal Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:45 Linda Vista Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:45 El Realejo Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 23:45 Puerto el Barquito Nicaragua  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Tecojate Guatemala  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Isla de Mendez El Salvador  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Del Monte Forest United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Pebble Beach United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Carmel Highlands United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Carmel-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Pacific Grove United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Carmel United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Monterey United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Del Rey Oaks United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Workfield United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Seaside United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Ord United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Marina United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Moss Landing United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Neponset United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Nashua United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 18:15 Castroville United States  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 La Libertad El Salvador  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 San Diego El Salvador  0.1
21 Oct 2022 00:00 Cangrejera El Salvador  0.1