Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for NORMA-23 in Mexico from 17 Oct 2023 21:00 UTC to 23 Oct 2023 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NORMA-23

in Mexico

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORMA-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	191 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 Oct 15:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	191 km/h	0.2 m	287 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	191 km/h	0.5 m	812 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Oct 2023 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	730,453

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Oct 2023 18:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	18 Oct 2023 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Oct 2023 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Oct 2023 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Oct 2023 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	19 Oct 2023 00:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Oct 2023 06:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 Oct 2023 12:00	191	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

812 mm

Up to 630 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Oct 2023 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	629,434
50-100 mm	Mexico, Guatemala	2,623,260	+
	Mexico	2,141,333
	Guatemala	481,927

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Oct 2023 18:00	143	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	18 Oct 2023 00:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Oct 2023 06:00	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Oct 2023 12:00	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Oct 2023 18:00	121	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	19 Oct 2023 00:00	186	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Oct 2023 06:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 Oct 2023 12:00	412	630 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Novillero, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Oct 2023 15:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Oct 2023 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:30	Boqueron	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:30	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:45	Barra Madre Vieja	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:45	Tecojate	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	La Concepion	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:00	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:30	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Ocos	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:45	Huitzitzil	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	El Chico	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Acapan	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Champerico	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	La Verde	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	Buenavista	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:00	El Tulate	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:00	Tahuesco	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 14:30	Nueva Venecia	Guatemala	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	Puerto de San Benito	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 15:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 17:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 17:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:30	Arista	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2023 16:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:45	San Felipe	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 12:15	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 17:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:30	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:30	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:30	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 12:45	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:45	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 12:45	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 12:45	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:00	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:00	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:00	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:15	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:15	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:15	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:15	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 17:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 17:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:45	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 17:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:30	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:30	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:45	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:00	Lagarto	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:00	Ayutla	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 16:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 14:15	Tierra Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:45	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 17:15	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 15:15	Mirador	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:15	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:15	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 13:15	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2023 18:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.