Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (16 May 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 0.2 m 382 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 0.4 m 1064 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

126 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar36 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2024 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMadagascar34,766 
50-100 mmMadagascar335,290
+
Madagascar335,282 
Other countries07 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2024 12:00 1435 30 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Other countries




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Sadani, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 16 May 2024 17:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 May 2024 17:15 Sadani Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Petukiza Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Kijamboni Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Vanga Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Majoreni Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Ramisi Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Mkwiro Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 16:15 Gongoni Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 16:15 Ngomeni Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Kolekole Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Kilale Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Mvuni Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Kiriwani Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Tanga Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:45 Andringahely Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:45 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 17:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 17:30 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 17:30 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 15:15 Malindi Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 15:15 Marikebuni Kenya  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Bomalandani Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Handeru Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Pangani Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 16:00 Vumbi Tanzania  0.2
16 May 2024 13:30 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 13:30 Ambolobozokely Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 13:30 Irodo Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 13:30 Ambaritsatrana Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 13:30 Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.2
16 May 2024 16:15 Kipini Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 16:30 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:30 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:30 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:30 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:30 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:30 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:30 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 15:30 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 15:30 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 15:30 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 15:30 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 14:45 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
16 May 2024 14:45 La Reunion Seychelles  0.1
16 May 2024 16:45 Nyambati Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:45 Salale Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:30 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Chumbuni Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Taandani Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Chekea Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Uchangani Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Temi Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Chake Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Ziwani Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Kijichame Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Jojo Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Dutani Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Hurumuzi Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Vumba Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 16:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 16:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 16:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Miperani Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Bopwe Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Konde Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Chokaningayo Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Kiuyu Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Kitambula Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:00 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:00 Donge Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:15 Dondo Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:15 Mpafu Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:15 Buuni Village Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 14:00 Victoria Seychelles  0.1
16 May 2024 14:00 Anse Boileau Seychelles  0.1
16 May 2024 16:45 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:45 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Amu Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Lamu Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Kililana Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Pate Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Siyu Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:45 Rasini Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:15 Mkunumbi Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:15 Hidio Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:15 Kiongwe Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:15 Makowe Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 15:15 Matondoni Kenya  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:15 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 16:30 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 16:30 Kiechuru Tanzania  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
16 May 2024 17:45 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1