Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (18 May 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 119 km/h 0.4 m 294 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 0.4 m 1064 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2024 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 May 2024 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 4 17 May 2024 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 May 2024 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 18 May 2024 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 18 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 May 2024 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1064 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmSeychelles02 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2024 12:00 382 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2024 18:00 473 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 May 2024 00:00 396 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2024 06:00 420 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 May 2024 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 18 May 2024 06:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 18 May 2024 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 18 May 2024 18:00 1385 -
- - - - - Seychelles




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 May 2024 18:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.4
18 May 2024 18:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.4
18 May 2024 18:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.4
18 May 2024 18:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
18 May 2024 21:45 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 21:45 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 21:45 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 21:45 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 18:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 21:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 21:45 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 18:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 18:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 21:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.3
18 May 2024 21:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 21:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 21:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 20:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
18 May 2024 20:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
18 May 2024 20:15 Barra Mozambique  0.2
18 May 2024 18:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 18:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 18:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 21:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 21:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 21:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 19:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 19:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 19:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 19:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 19:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 19:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 19:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
18 May 2024 23:00 Malindi Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 23:00 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 23:00 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 23:00 Ngomeni Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 19:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 19:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 19:15 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 19:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 19:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 19:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Kipini Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 19:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 20:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:15 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 19:30 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 19:30 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 La Reunion Seychelles  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Donge Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Gazija Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 20:45 Gulioni Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 23:45 Petukiza Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 23:45 Kijamboni Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 23:45 Vanga Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 23:45 Majoreni Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 23:45 Ramisi Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 23:45 Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 18:30 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
18 May 2024 23:00 Mwambo Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 23:00 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
18 May 2024 23:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
18 May 2024 20:15 Victoria Seychelles  0.1
18 May 2024 20:15 Anse Boileau Seychelles  0.1
18 May 2024 18:45 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
18 May 2024 18:45 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
18 May 2024 18:45 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
18 May 2024 19:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
18 May 2024 22:45 Kitunda Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 22:45 Kiuleula Tanzania  0.1
18 May 2024 22:45 Kiswa Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 00:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1