Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

21 May 2024 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 May 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	0.2 m	588 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 May 2024 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 May 2024 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 May 2024 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	20 May 2024 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	21 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Madagascar	247,814	+
	Tanzania	197,050
	Other countries	12
	Madagascar	50,750

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	214	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
5	18 May 2024 00:00	275	60 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
6	18 May 2024 12:00	447	150 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
7	19 May 2024 00:00	482	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	418	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 May 2024 00:00	267	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	20 May 2024 12:00	550	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	21 May 2024 00:00	664	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Other countries, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 10:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 09:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 09:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 09:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 09:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 17:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:30	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:30	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:45	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:30	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:30	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:30	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:30	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:30	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:30	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 04:00	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 04:00	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:45	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 16:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 06:00	Watamu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 06:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.