Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (19 May 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 122 km/h 0.2 m 201 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 0.4 m 1064 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2024 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 May 2024 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 4 17 May 2024 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 May 2024 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 18 May 2024 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 18 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 May 2024 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 May 2024 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 May 2024 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1064 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2024 12:00 382 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2024 18:00 473 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 May 2024 00:00 396 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2024 06:00 420 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 May 2024 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 18 May 2024 06:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 18 May 2024 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 18 May 2024 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 19 May 2024 00:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 19 May 2024 06:00 831 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Mkadini, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 19 May 2024 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 May 2024 11:30 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:45 Mbweni Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:45 Doriya Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:15 Sadani Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 06:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 06:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 06:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 06:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 06:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 06:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:15 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:15 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 06:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 08:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:15 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:30 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 11:15 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:15 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:15 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 11:15 Fumba Tanzania  0.2
19 May 2024 06:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
19 May 2024 06:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 11:30 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 08:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 08:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 10:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 11:15 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 11:15 Donge Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 11:45 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 10:45 Malindi Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 10:45 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 10:45 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 10:45 Ngomeni Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Paje Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Hiari Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:00 Tongoni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 11:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 11:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 11:15 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 06:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 06:30 Victoria Seychelles  0.1
19 May 2024 06:30 Anse Boileau Seychelles  0.1
19 May 2024 07:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 07:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Makowe Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Matondoni Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Amu Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Lamu Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Kililana Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 11:30 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 11:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Kipini Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 09:30 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
19 May 2024 09:30 La Reunion Seychelles  0.1
19 May 2024 07:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 11:45 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 11:45 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 11:45 Gazija Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 11:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 11:00 Mkunumbi Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 11:00 Hidio Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 11:00 Kiongwe Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Waa Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Mkunguni Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Mwandoni Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Mombasa Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Mto Panga Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 12:00 Mtwapa Kenya  0.1
19 May 2024 11:45 Mkunguni Tanzania  0.1
19 May 2024 08:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 08:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 08:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
19 May 2024 08:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1