Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	119 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (22 May 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	119 km/h	0.2 m	448 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

1064 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	294	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	323	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	399	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	470	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	383	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	605	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 May 2024 22:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 May 2024 22:30	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 22:30	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 22:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 22:30	Ampandrabe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 22:30	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 19:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 19:00	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 19:00	Gongoni	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 19:00	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 08:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	21 May 2024 08:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	20 May 2024 23:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 23:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 23:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 23:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 23:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 23:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 23:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:45	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:00	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:00	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 18:45	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 23:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 21:30	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 21:30	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Rasini	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Kitambula	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 19:30	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:15	Kilifi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:15	Takaungu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:15	Matsangoni	Kenya	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.