Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24
in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (22 May 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 101 km/h 0.2 m 485 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 0.4 m 1064 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2024 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 May 2024 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 4 17 May 2024 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 May 2024 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 18 May 2024 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 18 May 2024 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 May 2024 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 May 2024 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 May 2024 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 19 May 2024 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 19 May 2024 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 20 May 2024 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 20 May 2024 06:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 20 May 2024 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 20 May 2024 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 21 May 2024 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmTanzania183 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2024 12:00 382 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2024 18:00 473 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 May 2024 00:00 396 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2024 06:00 420 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2024 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2024 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 May 2024 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 18 May 2024 06:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 18 May 2024 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 18 May 2024 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 19 May 2024 00:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 19 May 2024 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 19 May 2024 12:00 323 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 19 May 2024 18:00 295 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 20 May 2024 00:00 399 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 20 May 2024 06:00 470 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 20 May 2024 12:00 383 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 20 May 2024 18:00 448 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 21 May 2024 00:00 625 -
- - - - - Tanzania




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 May 2024 21:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 May 2024 21:45 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
22 May 2024 21:45 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
22 May 2024 21:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
22 May 2024 21:45 Ampandrabe Madagascar  0.2
22 May 2024 21:45 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
21 May 2024 08:15 Victoria Seychelles  0.2
21 May 2024 08:15 Anse Boileau Seychelles  0.2
21 May 2024 14:45 Kipini Kenya  0.2
23 May 2024 10:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 10:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 16:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 03:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 03:00 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 03:00 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 03:00 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 03:00 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 03:00 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 08:00 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
21 May 2024 08:00 La Reunion Seychelles  0.1
21 May 2024 12:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
21 May 2024 12:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
21 May 2024 12:15 Barra Mozambique  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Gulioni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 11:30 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Mkuuni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Gazija Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Mkunumbi Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Hidio Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Kiongwe Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Makowe Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Matondoni Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Amu Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Lamu Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Kililana Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 12:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 12:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 16:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 16:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 16:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 17:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 17:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 17:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 17:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 15:00 Petukiza Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 15:00 Kijamboni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 15:00 Vanga Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 15:00 Majoreni Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 15:00 Ramisi Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 15:00 Mkwiro Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Antsisikala Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Antsahalalina Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andranovondronina Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
23 May 2024 09:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 01:45 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 01:45 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 00:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 00:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 00:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 00:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:15 Kilifi Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:15 Takaungu Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 02:15 Matsangoni Kenya  0.1
21 May 2024 15:45 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 00:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Rasini Kenya  0.1
23 May 2024 10:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Kolekole Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Kilale Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Mvuni Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Kiriwani Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 02:00 Tanga Tanzania  0.1
21 May 2024 00:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
21 May 2024 00:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1