Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	148 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 May 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	148 km/h	0.2 m	171 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	21 May 2024 06:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	21 May 2024 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

705 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania	66,770

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	62	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
7	18 May 2024 00:00	112	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	18 May 2024 06:00	162	110 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
9	18 May 2024 12:00	329	50 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
10	18 May 2024 18:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	125	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	132	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	230	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	21 May 2024 06:00	136	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	21 May 2024 12:00	312	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Mtwapa, Kenya. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 14:00	Mtwapa	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:00	Kijipwa	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:00	Kijangwani	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:00	Takaungu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Watamu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Malindi	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:45	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:45	Makowe	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:45	Matondoni	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:45	Amu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:45	Lamu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Matsangoni	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mida	Kenya	0.2
	22 May 2024 08:15	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 15:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:45	Rasini	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:30	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Miperani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Konde	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Kiuyu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Kilifi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Siyu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Kisima Chande	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Gazi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Pate	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Ukunda	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:30	Tiwi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 May 2024 09:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	24 May 2024 09:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	24 May 2024 09:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:30	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:30	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 02:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	22 May 2024 02:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.