Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

17 May 2024 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (17 May 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	0.4 m	177 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	125,501
100-250 mm	Madagascar	252,193
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar	616,210	+
	Seychelles	34
	Comoros	18,463
	Madagascar	597,711

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	744	380 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Soanierana Ivongo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2024 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2024 01:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 01:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 01:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 01:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 01:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 01:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 11:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:30	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:30	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:30	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:30	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:15	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:30	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:30	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 02:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:00	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:00	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:15	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 02:15	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 02:15	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 02:15	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 02:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 02:15	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:30	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:30	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 02:15	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:45	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:45	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:45	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:45	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:45	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.