Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (17 May 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	90 km/h	0.4 m	420 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles	02
50-100 mm	Seychelles	01

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	1256	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2024 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 09:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 10:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:45	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:45	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:45	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:45	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:45	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:45	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:45	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Kipara	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:45	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:45	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:15	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:15	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 09:15	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:15	Malindi	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:15	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:15	Gongoni	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 08:15	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Hidio	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Makowe	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Matondoni	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Amu	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Lamu	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:30	Kililana	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 11:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ambariomena	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:15	Antsahabe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 10:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:45	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:45	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:45	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:30	Porto Amelia	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:30	Atolo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:30	Morumequina	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:30	Murrebue	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:30	Luguni	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Quiterajo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Ingoane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Pangane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:00	Marere	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ampondrahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 10:45	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:15	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Berafia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:45	Carramali	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:45	Bajone	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:45	Pebane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 09:15	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Lotsohina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 06:15	Ambodizaotra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:45	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 07:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 09:45	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 09:45	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 09:45	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 09:45	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:45	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 08:45	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Kitambula	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 11:00	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.