Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

18 May 2024 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (18 May 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	68 km/h	0.3 m	275 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 May 2024 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	56,397
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar	356,503	+
	Seychelles	29
	Comoros	802
	Madagascar	355,671
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar	679,766	+
	Seychelles	54
	Comoros	40,107
	Madagascar	639,604

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	214	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
5	18 May 2024 00:00	942	410 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Comoros, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 May 2024 05:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 05:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 11:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 11:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 11:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 10:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 10:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 10:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 09:00	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 09:00	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 10:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 10:45	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 08:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:45	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:45	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:45	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:45	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:45	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 08:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 04:45	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 04:45	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 04:45	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 04:45	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.