Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (17 May 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.3 m	30 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	39,042
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	1,118,649	+
	Seychelles	24
	Madagascar	1,118,624
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	350,578	+
	Seychelles	59
	Madagascar	350,357
	Other countries	160

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	330	1.2 million				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Soanierana Ivongo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2024 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2024 13:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 13:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 13:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 13:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:30	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:30	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:30	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 14:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	17 May 2024 12:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 13:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:00	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:00	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:00	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:00	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 16:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:45	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Metapa	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Morrua	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Carramali	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Napito	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:15	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 12:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 18:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 14:15	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:30	Namorre	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 17:45	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:15	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 15:15	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Bajone	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 13:45	Pebane	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.