Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

19 May 2024 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 May 10:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	94 km/h	0.2 m	418 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 May 2024 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 May 2024 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar	277,891	+
	Mozambique	191
	Comoros	33,319
	Madagascar	244,196
	Other countries	184

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	214	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
5	18 May 2024 00:00	275	60 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
6	18 May 2024 12:00	447	150 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
7	19 May 2024 00:00	482	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	971	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 10:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 10:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:00	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:00	Gongoni	Kenya	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:00	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 17:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	19 May 2024 12:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Kijini	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 15:15	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 16:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 16:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 16:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 07:30	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 07:30	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 07:30	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 14:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 14:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Mida	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Watamu	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:45	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:15	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:45	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:45	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:15	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:00	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:45	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 06:45	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:00	Kilifi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:00	Takaungu	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 14:45	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:45	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 16:45	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:45	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:45	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 22:00	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:30	Rasini	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 14:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 01:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 13:45	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:15	Kisima Chande	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:15	Gazi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:15	Ukunda	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 15:15	Tiwi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 14:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.