Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico,
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (11 Oct 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 0.3 m 144 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.6 m 4425 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

72 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2025 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico1,289
+
United States05 
Mexico1,276 
Other countries07 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Oct 2025 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Oct 2025 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Oct 2025 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Oct 2025 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Oct 2025 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Oct 2025 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Oct 2025 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Oct 2025 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Oct 2025 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Oct 2025 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Oct 2025 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Oct 2025 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Oct 2025 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Oct 2025 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Oct 2025 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Oct 2025 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Oct 2025 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 09 Oct 2025 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Oct 2025 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Oct 2025 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 09 Oct 2025 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 10 Oct 2025 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 10 Oct 2025 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 10 Oct 2025 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 10 Oct 2025 18:00 94 -
- - - - - Other countries, Mexico
GREEN 26 11 Oct 2025 00:00 90 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico, Other countries
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2025 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico2,396 
100-250 mmMexico934,141 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador4,807,374
+
United States104,324 
Mexico1,624,326 
Other countries12 
Guatemala2,968,217 
El Salvador110,494 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Oct 2025 18:00 123 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Oct 2025 00:00 186 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 05 Oct 2025 06:00 193 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Oct 2025 12:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 05 Oct 2025 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 06 Oct 2025 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 06 Oct 2025 06:00 132 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 8 06 Oct 2025 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Oct 2025 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Oct 2025 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Oct 2025 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Oct 2025 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Oct 2025 18:00 266 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Oct 2025 00:00 186 Few people
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 15 08 Oct 2025 06:00 176 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 08 Oct 2025 12:00 231 Few people
- - - - Mexico, Other countries
Blue 17 08 Oct 2025 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Mexico, Other countries
Blue 18 09 Oct 2025 00:00 163 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 19 09 Oct 2025 06:00 161 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 20 09 Oct 2025 12:00 163 60 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 21 09 Oct 2025 18:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 10 Oct 2025 00:00 203 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 23 10 Oct 2025 06:00 170 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala, Other countries
Blue 24 10 Oct 2025 12:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 10 Oct 2025 18:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 11 Oct 2025 00:00 310 940 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico, Other countries, Guatemala, El Salvador




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2025 04:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2025 00:00 UTC
    
Level Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Oct 2025 04:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2025 04:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2025 02:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 La Playa Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 El Martillo United States  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 01:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Empalme Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 01:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 01:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:15 Molino Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:15 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Tecojate Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 San Jose Rama Blanca Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Sipacate Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 06:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Tahuesco Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Nueva Venecia Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Huitzitzil Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Barra Madre Vieja Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 El Roble Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 San Jose Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:45 La Concepion Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Barra de la Gabina Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Las Champas Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Barra de Santiago El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Buenos Aires El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Metalio El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:30 Arista Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 El Barril Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:30 Mulege Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 El Tulate Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:45 El Nispero El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:45 Hacienda Taquillo El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 Liliba Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 06:00 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 05:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 06:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:30 La Verde Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:45 El Naranjo Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:45 La Barrita Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:45 San Jose Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Papaturro Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 La Candelaria Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 El Pumpo Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 La Avellana Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Agua Dulce Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Astillero Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:30 El Chico Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:30 Acapan Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:30 Champerico Guatemala  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Tripui Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 05:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Acajutla El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Los Cobanos El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Acachapa El Salvador  0.2
11 Oct 2025 05:30 Cedros Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 02:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 00:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2025 04:15 San Pedro Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:45 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 06:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:00 La Majada Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:30 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:30 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:30 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Victoria Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:00 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Balchacah Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 06:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Gardendale United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Orange Grove United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Peary Place United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:45 Marmol Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Ayutla Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 05:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Woodville United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Bolinas United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Stinson Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Muir Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Kentfield United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Tamalpais Valley United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Mill Valley United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Larkspur United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Almonte United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Green Brae United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Marin City United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Strawberry United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Corte Madera United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Sunset District United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Sausalito United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 San Quentin United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Broadmoor United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Paradise Cay United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Stonestown United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Fort Winfield Scott United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Richmond District United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Daly City United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Tiburon United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 McNears Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Belvedere United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Colma United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Little Osaka United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Fort McDowell United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 San Francisco United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Bayshore United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 South San Francisco United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 North Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Brisbane United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:30 Copala Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:30 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:30 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:45 Mirador Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Bayside United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Estes United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Rockport United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Copano Village United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Fulton United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Lamar United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:00 Arrozal Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 01:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:45 Tangolunda Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 Ejido Guandalupe Victoria Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Bacliff United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Nadeau United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 San Leon United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Texas City United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Virginia Point United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Galveston United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Smith Point United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Fort Travis United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Flake United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:15 Elmgrove United States  0.1
11 Oct 2025 00:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:45 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 04:45 La Pesca Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 03:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2025 02:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.1