Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-25 in Mexico from 04 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC to 10 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25

in Mexico

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	155 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (06 Oct 19:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	155 km/h	0.3 m	162 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	72 km/h	0.6 m	4425 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Oct 2025 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Oct 2025 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2025 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Oct 2025 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Oct 2025 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Oct 2025 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Oct 2025 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Oct 2025 06:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Oct 2025 12:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Oct 2025 18:00	184	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

4425 mm

Up to 4.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Oct 2025 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico, Guatemala	4,870,498	+
	Mexico	4,765,060
	Guatemala	105,438
50-100 mm	Mexico, Guatemala	13,795,598	+
	Mexico	8,616,562
	Other countries	38
	Guatemala	5,178,997

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Oct 2025 18:00	123	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Oct 2025 00:00	186	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	05 Oct 2025 06:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Oct 2025 12:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	05 Oct 2025 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	06 Oct 2025 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	06 Oct 2025 06:00	132	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	06 Oct 2025 12:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Oct 2025 18:00	538	4.9 million			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Other countries, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Boqueron, Mexico. This height is estimated for 06 Oct 2025 19:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Oct 2025 18:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	Boqueron	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	Sipacate	Guatemala	0.3
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	El Naranjo	Guatemala	0.3
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	La Barrita	Guatemala	0.3
	06 Oct 2025 19:00	Arista	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:00	Buenavista	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:00	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Woodville	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Bolinas	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Stinson Beach	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Muir Beach	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Kentfield	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Tamalpais Valley	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Mill Valley	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Larkspur	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Almonte	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Green Brae	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Marin City	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Strawberry	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Corte Madera	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Sunset District	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Sausalito	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	San Quentin	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Broadmoor	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Paradise Cay	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Stonestown	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Fort Winfield Scott	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Richmond District	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Daly City	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Tiburon	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	McNears Beach	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Belvedere	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Colma	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Little Osaka	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Fort McDowell	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	San Francisco	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Bayshore	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	South San Francisco	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	North Beach	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Brisbane	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:00	San Jose Rama Blanca	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	San Jose	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	Cachimba	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	El Roble	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	La Verde	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	El Tulate	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Tahuesco	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Nueva Venecia	Guatemala	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Huitzitzil	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:45	Barra Madre Vieja	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:30	Tecojate	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	La Concepion	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	San Pedro	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Barra de la Gabina	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Las Champas	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Barra de Santiago	El Salvador	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	La Majada	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:45	El Nispero	El Salvador	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:45	Hacienda Taquillo	El Salvador	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	Buenos Aires	El Salvador	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	Metalio	El Salvador	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 18:30	Acajutla	El Salvador	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 18:30	Los Cobanos	El Salvador	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 19:00	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	La Gloria	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Chaparral	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	Iztapa	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	Papaturro	Guatemala	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Rockaway Beach	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Edgemar	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Pacifica	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Westborough	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Baden	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	San Bruno	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Tanforan	United States	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	La Candelaria	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:45	El Mezquite	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:30	Champerico	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Agua Dulce	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Astillero	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	El Pumpo	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	La Avellana	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:30	Aguaje	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	El Martillo	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	Puerto de San Benito	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:15	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:30	Acachapa	El Salvador	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:30	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	Salina Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:45	Lagarto	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:30	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Ocos	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:45	Acapan	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Bayside	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Estes	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Rockport	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Shell Ridge	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Copano Village	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Fulton	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Holiday Beach	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:30	Lamar	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	City Arroyo	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Port Mansfield	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 22:30	Balantanche	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Gardendale	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Orange Grove	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Peary Place	United States	0.1
	07 Oct 2025 00:00	Flour Bluff	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:15	Rancho Magueyes	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 22:15	Campeche	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 23:00	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:00	Spanish Village	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 18:00	Austwell	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Ejido Guandalupe Victoria	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:45	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 20:15	El Chico	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Buena Vista	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 21:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	06 Oct 2025 19:45	Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.