Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (31 Aug 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	158 km/h	0.6 m	281 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	202	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

376 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States	01
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	85,269	+
	Mexico	70,552
	United States	14,716

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	415	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	433	Few people			-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	31 Aug 2026 15:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.6
	31 Aug 2026 15:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.6
	31 Aug 2026 14:45	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.6
	31 Aug 2026 14:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.5
	31 Aug 2026 14:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.5
	31 Aug 2026 14:45	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 14:30	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 22:15	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 22:15	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 22:15	Ensenada	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 14:30	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 14:30	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2026 15:45	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 22:15	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 14:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 14:15	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 15:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 15:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 20:15	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 22:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:30	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:30	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:30	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 19:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 15:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 15:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 15:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:45	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 15:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 15:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 15:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 20:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Kalalau	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Haena	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Wainiha	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Hanalei	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Princeville	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Kilauea	United States	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:15	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2026 17:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 21:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 21:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 21:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 22:15	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 14:30	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 14:30	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 12:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Puunene	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Village Eight	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Paia	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Haiku	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Pauwela	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Ulumalu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Kailua	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Wailua	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 19:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 19:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 19:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 15:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kalaupapa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Moku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kamalo	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kaluaaha	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Ualapue	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Waialua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Halawa	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 20:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 13:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 19:15	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 23:00	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 19:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Marconi	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Kahuku	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Laie	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Hauula	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Punaluu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Waikane	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Kaaawa	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Kahana	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Kahaluu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Ahuimanu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Heeia	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Kaneohe	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	Kaneohe Station	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 19:15	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kealia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Moloaa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kapaa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Anahola	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kumukumu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 22:00	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:30	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:45	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:45	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Halena	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Wahilauhue	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Kepuhi	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Mauna Loa	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Moomomi	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Hoolehua	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Umipaa	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Kualapuu	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 16:00	Kaunakakai	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:15	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Makaha Valley	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Mokuleia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Dillingham Ranch	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Waialua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Waimea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Waialee	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Waieli	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	Mana	United States	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:15	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 19:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:30	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 17:15	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2026 18:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.