Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	133 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (01 Sep 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	133 km/h	0.7 m	308 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

376 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	436,614	+
	Mexico	424,598
	United States	12,016

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	415	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	281	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	423	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2026 07:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Sep 2026 07:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.7
	01 Sep 2026 07:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.6
	01 Sep 2026 07:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.6
	01 Sep 2026 08:15	La Choya	Mexico	0.5
	01 Sep 2026 08:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.5
	01 Sep 2026 06:45	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 00:30	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 00:30	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 00:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 07:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	Molino	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 08:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 09:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 09:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 03:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 03:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 02:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:30	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 08:15	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 02:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 02:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 03:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 06:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 02:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 10:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 02:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 08:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 08:15	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 11:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 11:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 03:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 03:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 03:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 03:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Umipaa	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Kaunakakai	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Moku	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Kamalo	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Kaluaaha	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Keomuku	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Ualapue	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:45	Pukoo	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 06:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 10:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 01:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Marconi	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Kahuku	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Laie	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Hauula	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Punaluu	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Waikane	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Kaaawa	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Kahana	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Kahaluu	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Ahuimanu	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Heeia	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Kaneohe	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Kaneohe Station	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	Maalaea	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	Kihei	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	Keawakapu	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	Makena	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	Keoneoio	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	Ulupalakua	United States	0.2
	01 Sep 2026 06:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 06:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:45	Kalaupapa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:45	Waialua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:45	Halawa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 08:00	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:15	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:15	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:15	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:15	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:15	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:30	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:30	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 08:30	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 08:30	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Kaanapali	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Puukolii	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Lahaina	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Crater Village	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Honokahua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Mahinahina Camp	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Kapalua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:45	Olowalu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 08:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 07:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:30	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 07:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Haena	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Wainiha	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Hanalei	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Princeville	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Kilauea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Kealia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Moloaa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Kapaa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Anahola	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 01:00	Kumukumu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 04:45	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 03:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 07:30	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:45	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 12:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Waihee	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Hyashi Village	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Wailuku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Kahului	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Puunene	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Village Eight	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 05:30	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:45	Kahakuloa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:30	Hoolehua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:30	Kualapuu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 02:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Makaha Valley	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Mokuleia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Dillingham Ranch	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Waialua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Waimea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Waialee	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 00:00	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Paia	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Haiku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Pauwela	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Ulumalu	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Kailua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Wailua	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Nahiku	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	Waieli	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	Mana	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:15	Kalalau	United States	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:15	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:15	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 11:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 06:15	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 09:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:15	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2026 10:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.