Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (03 Sep 06:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 155 km/h 0.4 m 308 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 158 km/h 1.2 m 376 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Aug 2026 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Aug 2026 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 Aug 2026 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 Aug 2026 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 29 Aug 2026 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 29 Aug 2026 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 30 Aug 2026 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Aug 2026 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 31 Aug 2026 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 31 Aug 2026 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 01 Sep 2026 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Sep 2026 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 02 Sep 2026 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 02 Sep 2026 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 03 Sep 2026 00:00 202 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

376 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico12,914 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Aug 2026 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Aug 2026 12:00 221 Few people
- - - - Kiribati
Blue 3 28 Aug 2026 00:00 270 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 Aug 2026 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 29 Aug 2026 00:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 Aug 2026 12:00 415 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 30 Aug 2026 00:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 30 Aug 2026 12:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 31 Aug 2026 00:00 193 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 31 Aug 2026 12:00 281 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 01 Sep 2026 00:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Sep 2026 12:00 321 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 02 Sep 2026 00:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 02 Sep 2026 12:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 03 Sep 2026 00:00 536 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Sep 2026 06:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2026 00:00 UTC
    
Level Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Sep 2026 06:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.4
03 Sep 2026 03:15 El Sauzal Mexico  0.4
03 Sep 2026 03:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.4
03 Sep 2026 03:15 Ensenada Mexico  0.4
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Novillero Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 03:00 Encino Solo Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 10:15 La Boca Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 04:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Datilito Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 11:00 La Paz Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Rosario Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 06:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 10:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 06:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.3
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Dimas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 12:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 02:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Santiago Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:45 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 03:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 12:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 La Lima Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:15 Marmol Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:15 Florida Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Cedros Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Loreto Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Kalaupapa United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Moku United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Kamalo United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Kaluaaha United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Ualapue United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Pukoo United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Waialua United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 06:30 Halawa United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Empalme Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Monteon Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Chula Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Altata Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Ligui Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Tripui Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 El Barril Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:45 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 01:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 01:00 Joluta Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Makaha Valley United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Mokuleia United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Dillingham Ranch United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Waialua United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Haleiwa United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Kamooloa United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Kawailoa Camp United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Kawailoa Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Waimea United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Pupukea United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Waialee United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Kawela Bay United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Marconi United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Kahuku United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Kahakuloa United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Waihee United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Hyashi Village United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Wailuku United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Kahului United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Puunene United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Village Eight United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Hawaiian Village United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Paia United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Haiku United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Pauwela United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Ulumalu United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Chola Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Keomuku United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Kaanapali United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Puukolii United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Lahaina United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Crater Village United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Honokahua United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Chamela Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 02:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Cunano Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:15 Barron Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Pizota Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Mahukona United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Hawi United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Kapaau United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Halaula United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Makapala United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 04:15 Niulii United States  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Corrales Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 Ipala Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 01:00 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 09:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 San Jose Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 11:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:45 Mulege Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Hanalei United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Princeville United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Kilauea United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Kealia United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Moloaa United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Kapaa United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Anahola United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:45 Kumukumu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:15 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:15 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:15 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Kaupulehu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Kiholo United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Weliweli United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Anaehoomalu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Puako United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Waikoloa Village United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Kawaihae United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 09:15 El Real Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 09:15 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 09:15 Apisa Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 12:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 03:15 Kailua United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 03:15 Wailua United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 03:15 Nahiku United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 09:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Laie United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Hauula United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Punaluu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Kaaawa United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Kahana United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 01:15 Halena United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 01:15 Wahilauhue United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 01:15 Kepuhi United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 01:15 Mauna Loa United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 01:15 Moomomi United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 01:15 Hoolehua United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:30 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:30 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Umipaa United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 08:00 Kaunakakai United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Maalaea United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Kihei United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Keawakapu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Makena United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Keoneoio United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Ulupalakua United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Halawa United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Halawa Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Aliamanu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Waikane United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Fort Shafter United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Kahaluu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Ahuimanu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Heeia United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Kaneohe United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Maunawili United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Kaneohe Station United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Kailua United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:30 Lanikai United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Maruata Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Mahinahina Camp United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Kapalua United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Olowalu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 11:30 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 02:30 Kualapuu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 05:30 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:45 Honolulu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:45 Aina Haina United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:45 Waimanalo United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:45 Maunalua United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 10:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 04:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Ninole United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Hakalau United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Honomu United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Pepeekeo United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Wainaku United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Papaikou United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Paukaa United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 00:15 Hilo United States  0.1
03 Sep 2026 01:15 Weston Point Kiribati  0.1