Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	205 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (04 Sep 22:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	205 km/h	0.6 m	539 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Sep 2026 12:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Sep 2026 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Sep 2026 12:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	03 Sep 2026 00:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Sep 2026 12:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	04 Sep 2026 00:00	187	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	04 Sep 2026 12:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

376 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	216,467	+
	Mexico	173,662
	United States	42,804

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	199	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	29 Aug 2026 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 Aug 2026 12:00	415	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	30 Aug 2026 00:00	252	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	30 Aug 2026 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	31 Aug 2026 00:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	31 Aug 2026 12:00	281	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	01 Sep 2026 00:00	308	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	01 Sep 2026 12:00	321	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Sep 2026 00:00	210	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Sep 2026 12:00	186	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	03 Sep 2026 00:00	308	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Sep 2026 12:00	299	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	04 Sep 2026 00:00	325	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	04 Sep 2026 12:00	784	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Sep 2026 22:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Sep 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Sep 2026 22:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.6
	04 Sep 2026 22:30	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.5
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	San Felipe	Mexico	0.5
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	La Choya	Mexico	0.4
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.4
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 22:30	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 22:30	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 22:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	Molino	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	05 Sep 2026 00:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.3
	04 Sep 2026 23:15	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Kaanapali	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Puukolii	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Lahaina	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Crater Village	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Olowalu	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Maalaea	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Waihee	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Hyashi Village	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Wailuku	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Kahului	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Kihei	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Puunene	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Keawakapu	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Village Eight	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Makena	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Keoneoio	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Hawaiian Village	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Ulupalakua	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:15	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:15	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 16:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:45	Honokahua	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:45	Mahinahina Camp	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:45	Kapalua	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 13:45	Kahakuloa	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 22:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:30	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:30	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	05 Sep 2026 00:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	Chula	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 21:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Estrecho	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Paia	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Haiku	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Pauwela	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Ulumalu	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 20:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 16:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 16:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 16:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Mahukona	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Hawi	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Kapaau	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Halaula	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Makapala	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Niulii	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 15:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 15:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 15:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 21:30	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Halena	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Wahilauhue	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Kepuhi	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Mauna Loa	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Moomomi	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 17:15	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:30	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Kalaupapa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Moku	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Kamalo	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Kaluaaha	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Ualapue	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Pukoo	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Waialua	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:00	Halawa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Ninole	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Hakalau	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Honomu	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Pepeekeo	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Wainaku	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Papaikou	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Paukaa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	Hilo	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 13:15	Keomuku	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 16:30	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 12:15	Hoolehua	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Mahaiula	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Kaupulehu	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Kiholo	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Weliweli	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Anaehoomalu	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Puako	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Waikoloa Village	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 22:45	Kawaihae	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Makaha Valley	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Mokuleia	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Dillingham Ranch	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Waialua	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Haleiwa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Kamooloa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Kawailoa Camp	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Kawailoa Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Waimea	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Pupukea	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Waialee	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Kawela Bay	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Marconi	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:15	Kahuku	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:15	Umipaa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:15	Kualapuu	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:15	Kaunakakai	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:30	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Kailua	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Kalalau	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Haena	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Wainiha	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Hanalei	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Princeville	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Kilauea	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Kealia	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Moloaa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 20:15	Kapaa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 17:45	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:30	Laie	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:30	Hauula	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:30	Punaluu	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:30	Kaaawa	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 21:30	Kahana	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 23:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 16:45	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Waikane	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	05 Sep 2026 00:00	Weston Point	Kiribati	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:30	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Waieli	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Mana	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Kekaha	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Waimea	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 18:45	Pakala Village	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2026 19:30	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.