Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (27 Aug 20:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	65 km/h	0.5 m	221 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Kiribati	4,600
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	43,593	+
	Mexico	42,921
	United States	671

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	398	5 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States, Kiribati

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in El Sauzal, Mexico. This height is estimated for 27 Aug 2026 20:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Aug 2026 20:30	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.5
	27 Aug 2026 20:30	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.5
	27 Aug 2026 20:30	Ensenada	Mexico	0.5
	27 Aug 2026 18:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	27 Aug 2026 20:30	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.3
	27 Aug 2026 15:30	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.3
	27 Aug 2026 15:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.3
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 22:45	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 14:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 14:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 18:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 18:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 18:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 18:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 18:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 15:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 15:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 16:00	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 16:00	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 16:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 13:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 13:30	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 16:45	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 16:00	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 23:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 13:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 13:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 19:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 19:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 12:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 12:15	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 12:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 19:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 23:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 12:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:45	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:00	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 12:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 16:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 18:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2026 17:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 00:00	Chula	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.