Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.2 m (28 Aug 22:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	83 km/h	1.2 m	199 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	158 km/h	1.2 m	376 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

158 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States	163,388	+
	Mexico	162,647
	United States	741

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Aug 2026 00:00	260	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Aug 2026 12:00	221	Few people			-	-	-	-	Kiribati
3	28 Aug 2026 00:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 Aug 2026 12:00	448	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, United States

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2026 22:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2026 12:00 UTC

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Aug 2026 22:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	1.2
	28 Aug 2026 22:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	1.0
	28 Aug 2026 22:15	San Felipe	Mexico	1.0
	28 Aug 2026 21:15	La Choya	Mexico	0.7
	28 Aug 2026 21:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.7
	28 Aug 2026 22:15	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.5
	28 Aug 2026 21:30	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2026 22:15	Molino	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2026 22:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 18:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 22:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 23:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 20:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 20:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Ensenada	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 19:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 18:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 19:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 19:45	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 19:45	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 20:00	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Erendria	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:15	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:15	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:45	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2026 00:00	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:30	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 16:45	Maruata	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 18:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 17:15	La Mision	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.