Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 234 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (24 Oct 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 234 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
HWRF Overall 269 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

274 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico27 
Tropical StormMexico32893 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 167 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 182 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Oct 2018 06:00 201 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 21 Oct 2018 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 21 Oct 2018 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 22 Oct 2018 00:00 234 Few people
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 22 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Oct 2018 06:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 6 21 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 7 21 Oct 2018 18:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 8 22 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Cuantla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 12:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 12:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 12:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 12:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 12:30 Novillero Mexico  0.4
22 Oct 2018 13:15 San Blas Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 13:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 01:15 Chola Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 01:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 01:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 02:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 02:00 Santiago Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 02:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2018 08:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2018 09:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2018 09:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.3
22 Oct 2018 00:45 El Real Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Apisa Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Cayaca Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 San Telmo Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 01:45 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 01:15 Corrales Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 01:15 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 01:15 Ipala Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 01:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 01:45 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Chamela Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:45 Monteon Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 04:30 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 04:30 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 09:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 09:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Port Aransas United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Yarborough United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 09:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 09:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 09:00 Florida Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 09:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Ingleside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Estes United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Rockport United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 21:45 Erendria Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 00:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 01:45 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:45 Holly Beach United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:45 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:45 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:45 Port Isabel United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:45 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:45 South Padre Island United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:45 Boca Chica United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Fulton United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 22:00 El Rosario Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:15 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 08:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 08:30 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 08:30 Cunano Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 13:30 Barron Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 19:30 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 10:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 09:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Indianola United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 08:15 Tangolunda Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 08:15 Mirador Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 08:15 Ayutla Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Garrapateras Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 16:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 20:45 Pizota Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 20:45 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 13:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 13:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 13:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 13:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 15:30 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 15:30 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Matagorda United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 17:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 17:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 17:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 23:45 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 23:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 23:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 03:30 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 07:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 23:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 15:00 Arista Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 10:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Virginia Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Galveston United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Fort Travis United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Flake United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Elmgrove United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Patton United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 23:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 07:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 07:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 16:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 16:00 Chinquapin United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 19:00 Quinones Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 17:30 La Concepion Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 06:45 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Surfside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Mims United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Hoskins United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Port Morris United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Red Fish Cove United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Bay Harbor United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Sea Isle United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 19:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Valasco Heights United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Freeport United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Quintana United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 02:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 02:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 08:00 Chula Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:15 Puerto Escondido Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:15 Paso Hondo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:15 Chagues Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 09:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 17:00 Gulf Park United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 17:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 10:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 15:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:15 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:15 La Majada Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 17:30 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 02:30 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 10:15 La Florida Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 16:45 Caplen United States  0.1
22 Oct 2018 11:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 18:15 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 09:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 04:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 17:15 Texas City United States  0.1
22 Oct 2018 12:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:30 Joluta Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:30 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 21:30 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 02:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Bucerias Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 07:15 Pie Cerro Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 15:00 El Marques Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 20:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 21:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 18:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 01:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 19:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 20:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 00:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 00:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 18:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 10:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 03:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 07:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 17:45 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 19:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 19:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 20:15 Mauricio Gutierrez Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 08:15 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 10:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 11:30 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 07:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 08:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 05:45 Gilchrist United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 05:45 High Island United States  0.1
23 Oct 2018 07:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:45 El Naranjal Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:45 La Mata Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:45 Agua Dulce Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 09:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 03:45 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 18:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 10:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 13:15 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 07:15 Copala Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 04:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 04:45 El Tular Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 01:45 Conejo Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 06:00 La Tuza Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 04:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 19:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 13:15 El Porvenir Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link