Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 113 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (24 Oct 00:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 68 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
ECMWF Overall 113 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

130 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico30379 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 19 Oct 2018 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2018 00:00 67 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 99 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Oct 2018 12:00 124 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 22 Oct 2018 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 22 Oct 2018 12:00 120 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 23 Oct 2018 00:00 120 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 24 Oct 2018 00:00 81 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 24 Oct 2018 12:00 68 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 19 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 2 20 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 3 20 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 6 22 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 7 22 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 8 23 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 9 23 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 10 24 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 11 24 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

No content available ..

Calculation folder at this link