Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-19
in Mexico
03 Sep 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FERNAND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (05 Sep 00:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 72 km/h 0.2 m 254 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.2 m 254 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

72 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Sep 2019 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,583,843
+
United States457,425 
Mexico1,126,418 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala14,616,947
+
United States858,600 
Mexico13,758,195 
Guatemala152 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Sep 2019 06:00 254 1.6 million
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Port Mansfield, United States. This height is estimated for 05 Sep 2019 00:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Sep 2019 00:30 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:30 El Martillo United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:30 Yarborough United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 19:30 Orange Grove United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 19:30 Peary Place United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 19:30 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:30 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:45 El Porvenir Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 19:30 Los Ebanos Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 19:30 El Mezquital Mexico  0.2
05 Sep 2019 23:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Ingleside United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Port Aransas United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:30 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
03 Sep 2019 09:00 Laja Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 23:30 Holly Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 23:30 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 23:30 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 23:30 Port Isabel United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 23:30 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 23:30 South Padre Island United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 23:30 Boca Chica United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:45 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:30 Estes United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:30 Rockport United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:30 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:30 Fulton United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 20:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 17:00 Indianola United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 18:15 La Pesca Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Surfside United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Mims United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Port Morris United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Sea Isle United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:45 Matagorda United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:45 Chinquapin United States  0.1
05 Sep 2019 07:30 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:45 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Freeport United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Quintana United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Hitchcock United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Virginia Point United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Galveston United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:30 Gulf Park United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:30 Hoskins United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:30 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 08:15 Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2019 08:15 La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2019 08:15 Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Los Pericos Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Nadeau United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Texas City United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:15 Fort Travis United States  0.1
05 Sep 2019 23:00 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.1
05 Sep 2019 23:00 Chenkan Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Flake United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Elmgrove United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Patton United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Caplen United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Gilchrist United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 02:45 Sabine United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:45 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:30 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:30 Constance Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:30 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:30 Holly Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:15 High Island United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:15 Cameron United States  0.1
05 Sep 2019 23:15 Noham Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 14:45 La Presita Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2019 08:15 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2019 08:15 Salinas Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2019 08:15 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:15 Oak Grove United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:00 El Tular Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:00 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1