Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam
10 Nov 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (10 Nov 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 1.5 m 201 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 97 km/h 1.5 m 406 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 8 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India8,025
+
Bangladesh7,861 
India164 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Nov 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Nov 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Nov 2019 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Nov 2019 12:00 97 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 7 09 Nov 2019 00:00 97 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 8 09 Nov 2019 12:00 86 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 9 10 Nov 2019 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBangladesh15,927,845 
50-100 mmIndia, Burma, China, Bangladesh30,503,967
+
India585,613 
Burma88,527 
China1,533 
Bangladesh29,828,294 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Nov 2019 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Nov 2019 12:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Nov 2019 00:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Nov 2019 12:00 232 -
- - - - - India
Blue 7 09 Nov 2019 00:00 202 390 thousand
- - - - India, Burma, Bangladesh
Blue 8 09 Nov 2019 12:00 261 1.4 million
- - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 9 10 Nov 2019 00:00 221 15.9 million
- - - - India, Burma, China, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Hatia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kumira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Gahira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Anowara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Noapara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:45 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Magnama Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Napura Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 12:45 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:15 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:30 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:15 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:15 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:45 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Kakinada India  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:15 Darein Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:15 Paung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:15 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Munaing Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Tagukana Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 13:00 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.1