Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
07 Dec 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (06 Dec 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 108 km/h 0.4 m 491 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

108 km/h

Up to 70 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSomalia68,542 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Somalia
GREEN 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 06 Dec 2019 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 06 Dec 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Somalia
GREEN 17 07 Dec 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Somalia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSomalia2,584 
100-250 mmYemen, Somalia, Ethiopia96,276
+
Yemen1,612 
Somalia85,706 
Ethiopia8,958 
50-100 mmYemen, Somalia, Ethiopia442,801
+
Yemen2,850 
Somalia373,094 
Ethiopia66,857 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 348 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 353 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 223 -
- - - - - Yemen
Blue 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 265 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 283 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 465 -
- - - - - Somalia
Blue 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 114 -
- - - - - Somalia
Blue 15 06 Dec 2019 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Somalia
Blue 16 06 Dec 2019 18:00 195 10 thousand
- - - - Somalia
Blue 17 07 Dec 2019 00:00 193 40 thousand
- - - - Somalia, Ethiopia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in 'Ag, Somalia. This height is estimated for 06 Dec 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Dec 2019 21:00 'Ag Somalia  0.4
04 Dec 2019 15:45 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.4
04 Dec 2019 15:45 Eyl Somalia  0.4
04 Dec 2019 15:45 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.4
06 Dec 2019 19:30 Dauli Somalia  0.4
07 Dec 2019 00:30 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 02:30 Aiesloho Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 02:30 Mach Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 14:30 Bargaal Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:30 Tadjoura Djibouti  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Hen Daier Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 08:00 Tooxin Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 20:30 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 17:45 Xaafuun Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Hobyo Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Garahadde Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 17:30 Sala Gon Somalia  0.3
05 Dec 2019 16:30 Ascira Somalia  0.3
06 Dec 2019 18:30 Darimoh Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 02:30 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 10:15 Bereeda Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:00 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 09:30 Beylu Eritrea  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:00 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 19:15 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:15 Lakba Oman  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:15 Sawqirah Oman  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:15 Lakabi Oman  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:15 Qaysad Oman  0.2
05 Dec 2019 23:00 Cadayo Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Saylac Somalia  0.2
07 Dec 2019 13:00 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Culli Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Biyafoge Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 14:45 Qishn Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 11:30 Boho Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 11:30 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Loyado Djibouti  0.2
07 Dec 2019 10:45 Tabut Yemen  0.2
07 Dec 2019 10:45 Hayrut Yemen  0.2
07 Dec 2019 10:45 Nishtun Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Djibouti Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Ghubbah Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 00:00 Qadub Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:00 Geeri Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Bandar Jedid Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Sair Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Haima Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Fugwa Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Sajid Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Humr Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Rehayto Eritrea  0.2
04 Dec 2019 19:15 Gishub Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Marero Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Bacaad Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:00 Aantaara Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Al Mansuri Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 19:45 Kraytar Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 08:00 Al Madasikah Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 08:30 Midi Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 08:30 Al Kharamilah Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:30 Al Qahmah Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 12:30 Musaykah Saudi Arabia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 03:45 Botiala Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Farasan Saudi Arabia  0.2
07 Dec 2019 00:15 Qandala Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Buro Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Fagal Djibouti  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:15 Khor Angar Djibouti  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Kamaran Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Sayfaf Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Al Jazirah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Qurayyah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Al Khawbah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:45 Ibn Abbas Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:00 Al Bahiyah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:00 Kinshia Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 13:00 Kilmia Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:15 Obock Djibouti  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:00 Al Hajaf Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 03:30 Steroh Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 21:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 07:45 Al Luyhayyah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Madinat ash Shab Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 'Imran Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 Hajambar Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 'Arid Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 Behld Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:15 Beraisole Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 20:30 Mayyun Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Buyut al Muhamirah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Al Fazah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 10:15 Khatib Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 10:15 Bu Tawq Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Qa'wa Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Murad Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 17:00 Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 09:30 Al Madaya Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 18:45 Boosaaso Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 10:45 Al Ghulayfiqah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 09:45 Jizan Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 09:45 Al Karbus Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Dhurbo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Bandar Murcaayo Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Geesaley Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Abo Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Ari Adeso Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:15 Berbera Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:30 Shaqra Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:30 Hundegal Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:30 Laasqoray Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:30 Ceelaayo Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 08:30 Bender Siyaada Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:00 Seyara Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 19:30 Al Butays Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 17:00 Abd Allah Gharib Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 17:00 Jarub Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Mutra Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Siqirah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 23:15 Mulaax Beyle Somalia  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:00 Caluula Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 10:15 Qawz al Ja'afirah Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 10:15 Mansiyah Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:45 Al 'Urj Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:00 Carmaale Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:45 Alela Eritrea  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:45 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:00 Lughaye Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:15 Ghadir Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:15 Maallah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:15 Khormaksar Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 14:15 'Adan Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 21:00 Jabanah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:15 Al Khawkhah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:15 Maushij Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:15 Jirdan Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:00 Burum Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:00 Fuwwah Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:00 Al Mukalla Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 00:00 Al Juwaibiyat Yemen  0.1