Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
14 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (14 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 0.3 m 507 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

Up to 8 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar8,018 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmMadagascar81,314 
750-1000 mmMadagascar95,954 
500-750 mmMadagascar155,771 
250-500 mmMadagascar603,135 
100-250 mmMadagascar1,358,043 
50-100 mmMadagascar2,008,220 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 248 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 423 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 111 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 265 10 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 1295 2.3 million
Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 14 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Tampina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 16:15 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:45 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:30 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:30 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 14:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambatonjanahary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Irodo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Lokia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:30 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 16:15 Palma Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 16:15 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 16:15 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 16:15 Boala Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 16:15 Maganja Mozambique  0.1