Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (18 Feb 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 65 km/h 0.4 m 844 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 3 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar3076 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 14 Feb 2020 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 15 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 15 Feb 2020 06:00 65 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmMadagascar16769 
750-1000 mmMadagascar79421 
500-750 mmMadagascar296275 
250-500 mmMadagascar695650 
100-250 mmMadagascar2570132 
50-100 mmMadagascar3156302 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 248 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 423 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 111 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 265 10 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 507 250 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 14 Feb 2020 18:00 232 290 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 15 Feb 2020 00:00 128 10 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 15 Feb 2020 06:00 844 2.6 million
- Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 Feb 2020 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.4
18 Feb 2020 01:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.3
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.3
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
18 Feb 2020 01:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
18 Feb 2020 02:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
18 Feb 2020 01:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 03:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 03:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 03:45 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 03:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 03:45 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 03:45 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Vavony Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 12:45 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 12:45 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 12:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 12:45 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 12:45 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 12:45 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 02:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 02:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 02:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 12:30 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.2
18 Feb 2020 02:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Tampina Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Palma Mozambique  0.2
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Bawala Mozambique  0.2
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Olumbe Mozambique  0.2
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Boala Mozambique  0.2
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Maganja Mozambique  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
17 Feb 2020 00:15 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:15 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:15 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:15 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:15 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 15:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:45 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:45 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:45 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:15 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:15 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 03:45 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 23:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 23:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:30 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:30 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 01:15 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 01:15 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 01:15 Mauala Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 01:15 Arire Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:15 Onara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 03:15 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 23:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 11:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 11:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 11:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 11:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:15 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:15 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 14:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 14:45 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 14:45 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 14:45 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 01:15 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 13:45 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 07:30 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 00:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:45 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambatonjanahary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 16:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 16:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 16:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 16:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Irodo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Lokia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:45 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 07:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 06:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:30 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:00 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 15:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 13:30 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:00 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:00 Nacala Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:00 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:00 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:15 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 14:15 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 14:30 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 14:30 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 14:30 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 01:15 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 01:15 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 01:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 15:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
17 Feb 2020 10:30 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
17 Feb 2020 10:30 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 15:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:30 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 04:15 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link