Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20
Off-shore
07 Oct 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (29 Sep 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 155 km/h 0.5 m 931 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 155 km/h 0.5 m 931 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 Sep 2020 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Sep 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 29 Sep 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 30 Sep 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 30 Sep 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Oct 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 01 Oct 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 02 Oct 2020 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 02 Oct 2020 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 03 Oct 2020 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Oct 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 04 Oct 2020 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 04 Oct 2020 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 05 Oct 2020 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 05 Oct 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 06 Oct 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 06 Oct 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 07 Oct 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 07 Oct 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

931 mm

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico35,412 
50-100 mmMexico418,700 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 Sep 2020 12:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Sep 2020 00:00 250 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 29 Sep 2020 12:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 30 Sep 2020 00:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 30 Sep 2020 12:00 347 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Oct 2020 00:00 530 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 01 Oct 2020 12:00 346 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Oct 2020 00:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Oct 2020 12:00 246 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Oct 2020 00:00 227 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Oct 2020 12:00 290 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 04 Oct 2020 00:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 04 Oct 2020 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 05 Oct 2020 00:00 320 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 05 Oct 2020 12:00 325 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 06 Oct 2020 00:00 288 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 06 Oct 2020 12:00 268 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 07 Oct 2020 00:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 07 Oct 2020 12:00 685 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2020 04:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Sep 2020 04:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.5
10 Oct 2020 10:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.4
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 10:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.3
03 Oct 2020 07:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 22:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.3
10 Oct 2020 10:15 El Barril Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 09:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.3
06 Oct 2020 19:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 09:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 10:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 10:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
06 Oct 2020 19:45 San Jose Mexico  0.3
06 Oct 2020 19:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
06 Oct 2020 19:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
06 Oct 2020 19:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 10:00 Mulege Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 09:45 Empalme Mexico  0.3
01 Oct 2020 09:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 20:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 20:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 10:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:45 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 10:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 Liliba Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 20:30 Ligui Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 20:30 Tripui Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:30 Cedros Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Santiago Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 21:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 21:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 21:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 19:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 20:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 06:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 15:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 15:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 19:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 06:45 Monteon Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 19:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 14:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 04:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Florida Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 18:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 18:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 07:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 07:45 La Boca Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 10:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 10:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 20:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 20:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 19:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 19:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 08:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
01 Oct 2020 09:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:45 Barron Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 04:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 18:45 Chola Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 19:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 17:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 08:30 Dimas Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 El Real Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 Chupadero Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 Apisa Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 07:15 Cayaca Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 07:30 San Telmo Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 08:45 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 08:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 20:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 20:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 23:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2020 10:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 15:45 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 15:45 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 18:45 Pizota Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 20:15 La Florida Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 08:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
08 Oct 2020 01:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2020 03:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 08:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 08:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 08:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
07 Oct 2020 08:30 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 03:00 Cunano Mexico  0.2
06 Oct 2020 21:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 22:15 El Tule Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 22:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 22:00 Ipala Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2020 07:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Corrales Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 18:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 17:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
06 Oct 2020 20:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
06 Oct 2020 20:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 07:45 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
08 Oct 2020 20:30 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2020 01:00 La Playa Mexico  0.1
02 Oct 2020 07:15 Maruata Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 17:45 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
07 Oct 2020 08:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.1