Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHALANE-20
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana
28 Dec 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHALANE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (28 Dec 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 72 km/h 0.3 m 20 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 155 km/h 1.3 m 451 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

155 km/h

Up to 1.8 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Dec 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique, Zimbabwe1,802,931
+
Mozambique1,663,468 
Zimbabwe139,463 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Dec 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Dec 2020 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Dec 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Dec 2020 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 26 Dec 2020 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Dec 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Dec 2020 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 9 26 Dec 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 27 Dec 2020 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Dec 2020 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 27 Dec 2020 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 27 Dec 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 28 Dec 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 28 Dec 2020 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Dec 2020 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Dec 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique2,399 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique535,052
+
Madagascar15,896 
Zimbabwe140,996 
Mozambique378,160 
50-100 mmMadagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique1,995,767
+
Madagascar338,043 
Zimbabwe766,548 
Mozambique891,176 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 25 Dec 2020 00:00 22 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Dec 2020 06:00 20 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Dec 2020 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Dec 2020 18:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 26 Dec 2020 00:00 27 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Dec 2020 06:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Dec 2020 12:00 26 20 thousand - - - - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 26 Dec 2020 18:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 27 Dec 2020 00:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Dec 2020 06:00 13 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 27 Dec 2020 12:00 12 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 27 Dec 2020 18:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 28 Dec 2020 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Dec 2020 06:00 20 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Dec 2020 12:00 764 540 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Mbweni, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 28 Dec 2020 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Dec 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Dec 2020 12:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.3
28 Dec 2020 12:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.3
28 Dec 2020 12:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.3
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Nyambati Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Salale Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:15 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:15 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:15 Beira Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 17:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Mkarangama Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Chole Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Kipingwe Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Kirongwe Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Jimbo Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 16:15 Manica Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:30 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:45 Ampara Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:00 Kolekole Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:00 Kilale Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:30 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:15 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Kiechuru Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Gulioni Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Mdudu Mdogo Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Dikoni Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Pingwe Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Mbwera Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 18:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 18:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 18:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 18:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 15:30 Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:45 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:45 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:45 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Ampondrabe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Lokia Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:45 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 14:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 17:30 Tama Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 13:30 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1