Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (23 Jan 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 122 km/h 2.4 m 171 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique849,072 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 122 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

907 mm

Up to 9.1 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Africa12,917 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland9,061,883
+
Tanzania1,080 
Malawi20,944 
Madagascar48,283 
Mozambique4,754,359 
Zimbabwe1,641,188 
South Africa2,522,013 
Swaziland74,016 
50-100 mmTanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland8,416,377
+
Tanzania63,558 
Zambia37,129 
Malawi188,974 
Comoros1,268 
Madagascar905,826 
Mozambique3,304,719 
Zimbabwe1,644,137 
Reunion6,548 
South Africa1,313,932 
Swaziland950,286 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 Jan 2021 12:00 179 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 00:00 390 80 thousand
- - - Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 280 2 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 12:00 299 40 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 6 19 Jan 2021 00:00 504 140 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 7 19 Jan 2021 12:00 665 710 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 8 20 Jan 2021 00:00 360 400 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 9 20 Jan 2021 12:00 492 390 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 10 21 Jan 2021 00:00 232 50 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe
Blue 11 21 Jan 2021 12:00 238 260 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, Madagascar
Blue 12 22 Jan 2021 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 13 22 Jan 2021 12:00 371 9.1 million
- - - Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Ambanhe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  2.4
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Ampara Mozambique  2.4
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Manica Mozambique  2.4
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.4
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Antunes Mozambique  2.3
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Chamba Mozambique  2.3
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Beira Mozambique  2.3
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Damiao Mozambique  2.3
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Nhangau Mozambique  2.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  1.8
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.7
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Panaca Mozambique  1.7
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Chiloane Mozambique  1.4
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Divinhe Mozambique  1.4
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Tama Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 19:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.2
22 Jan 2021 19:15 Bingue Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 17:45 Rupia Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 17:45 Machesse Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 14:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.9
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Jo Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Amado Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Catine Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 13:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 China Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Maputo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Maziba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Aiai Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Cimbene Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 17:45 Afo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Canhamba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Beula Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Maxixe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Chicoque Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Inhambane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Guilande Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Banga Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 19:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Contra Costa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Jacob Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Chavanine Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Linchica Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Machavene Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:00 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Induna Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Inhampsi Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:45 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:45 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:45 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 00:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 00:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 00:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Accua Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Moliha Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Dzoumogne Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Chingoni Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Dembeni Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Longoni Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Mamoudzou Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 09:30 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 09:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Momade Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Siane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
25 Jan 2021 05:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 05:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 05:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 David Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:45 Mauala Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:30 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 13:30 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Camo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Guinjala Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Ingale Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Enkovukeni South Africa  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:30 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Mabibi South Africa  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Napito Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Namorre Mozambique  0.1