Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELOISE-21 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC to 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

23 Jan 2021 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mozambique
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	126 km/h
Maximum storm surge	2.3 m (23 Jan 00:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	126 km/h	2.3 m	162 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	104 km/h	2.3 m	907 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mozambique	622,683

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 Jan 2021 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Jan 2021 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 Jan 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Jan 2021 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Jan 2021 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	19 Jan 2021 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Jan 2021 12:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	20 Jan 2021 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 Jan 2021 12:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
10	21 Jan 2021 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	21 Jan 2021 12:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	22 Jan 2021 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	22 Jan 2021 12:00	122	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
14	23 Jan 2021 00:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

907 mm

Up to 7 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mozambique, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland	6,961,953	+
	Madagascar	52,982
	Mozambique	2,843,589
	Zimbabwe	488,575
	Reunion	4,094
	South Africa	2,897,677
	Swaziland	675,036
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland	8,967,667	+
	Tanzania	159,461
	Zambia	125,918
	Malawi	485,287
	Madagascar	882,272
	Mozambique	2,288,994
	Zimbabwe	2,506,600
	Mauritius	266,443
	Reunion	13,034
	South Africa	1,512,226
	Swaziland	727,432

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 Jan 2021 12:00	179	-	-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
2	17 Jan 2021 00:00	390	80 thousand			-	-	-	Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
3	17 Jan 2021 12:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique
4	18 Jan 2021 00:00	280	2 thousand		-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
5	18 Jan 2021 12:00	299	40 thousand			-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
6	19 Jan 2021 00:00	504	140 thousand		-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
7	19 Jan 2021 12:00	665	710 thousand			-	-	-	Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Mozambique
8	20 Jan 2021 00:00	360	400 thousand			-	-	-	Madagascar
9	20 Jan 2021 12:00	492	390 thousand			-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique
10	21 Jan 2021 00:00	232	50 thousand		-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe
11	21 Jan 2021 12:00	238	260 thousand		-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Reunion, Madagascar
12	22 Jan 2021 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
13	22 Jan 2021 12:00	171	170 thousand		-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Zimbabwe
14	23 Jan 2021 00:00	230	7 million		-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion, South Africa, Swaziland

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

2.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 2.3m in Ambanhe, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 00:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Jan 2021 00:30	Ambanhe	Mozambique	2.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:30	Ampara	Mozambique	2.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:30	Manica	Mozambique	2.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:30	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	2.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Beira	Mozambique	2.0
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Damiao	Mozambique	2.0
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Antunes	Mozambique	1.9
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Chamba	Mozambique	1.9
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	1.9
	23 Jan 2021 02:15	Metambanhe	Mozambique	1.9
	23 Jan 2021 02:45	Divinhe	Mozambique	1.5
	23 Jan 2021 02:45	Chiloane	Mozambique	1.5
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	1.1
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Panaca	Mozambique	1.1
	23 Jan 2021 02:15	Dinguiduane	Mozambique	0.7
	23 Jan 2021 02:15	Jo	Mozambique	0.7
	23 Jan 2021 02:15	Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.7
	23 Jan 2021 03:30	Natalia	Mozambique	0.6
	23 Jan 2021 03:30	Inhassoro	Mozambique	0.6
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.6
	23 Jan 2021 03:15	Laisse	Mozambique	0.5
	23 Jan 2021 03:45	Catine	Mozambique	0.4
	23 Jan 2021 04:00	Afonso	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 04:00	Asneira	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 03:45	Caulino	Mozambique	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Jan 2021 01:45	Castigo	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 01:45	Xetoquica	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 01:45	Vilanculos	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 01:45	China	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 01:45	Mariano	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:15	Catembe	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:15	Maputo	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:15	Joannisse	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:15	Maziba	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 02:15	Chichocane	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 02:15	Mahoa	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 02:15	Uetela	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 14:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 14:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:30	Aiai	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:30	Cimbene	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:15	Canhamba	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Beula	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Morrumbene	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Maxixe	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Chicoque	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Inhambane	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Guilande	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Marivate	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Banga	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Praia do Tofo	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Miramar	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 09:45	Bambe	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 09:45	Maguemba	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 09:45	Macashale	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 09:45	Macanzele	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 09:00	Afo	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Vila Luisa	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	D'lhelo	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Linchica	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	Contra Costa	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	Jacob	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	Chavanine	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 10:15	Gueima	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	Mahupe	Mozambique	0.2
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	Induna	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Mahitsihazo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 10:45	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 00:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 07:45	Bela Vista	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 07:45	Machavene	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Mabsil	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	Inhampsi	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 08:45	Guiducua	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:30	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:30	Manakara	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:30	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 10:15	Gafaria	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 10:15	Nangalete	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:15	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:15	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 21:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 21:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 21:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 21:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:30	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 02:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 02:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 02:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 02:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 18:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 18:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 18:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:30	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:30	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	David	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:15	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:30	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 05:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 11:30	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 11:30	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 11:30	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 11:30	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 11:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 11:30	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 11:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 16:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 10:30	Enkovukeni	South Africa	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 12:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Fabiao	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ombauine	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Mauala	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 12:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 10:45	Mabibi	South Africa	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 15:30	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 15:30	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 19:30	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 19:30	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 19:30	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Tsiboka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 09:30	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Anadramy Nord	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 11:00	Mangolovolo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 01:45	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 13:45	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 05:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 05:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Jan 2021 05:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Jan 2021 14:15	Arire	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 16:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2021 16:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.