Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
23 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (23 Jan 07:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 1.6 m 80 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique85,514 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 133 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Africa78,760 
100-250 mmZambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa3,515,001
+
Zambia212,056 
Mozambique251,287 
Madagascar84 
Zimbabwe248,502 
South Africa2,803,072 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland13,346,881
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo2,950 
Tanzania849,392 
Zambia781,643 
Malawi1,192,542 
Mozambique2,168,566 
Madagascar4,356,754 
Zimbabwe1,115,651 
South Africa1,637,335 
Swaziland1,242,048 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 160 70 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 117 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 138 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 102 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 281 3.6 million
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Chiloane, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 07:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Chiloane Mozambique  1.6
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Divinhe Mozambique  1.3
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  1.2
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  1.2
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampara Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Manica Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Jo Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 06:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Catine Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.4
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 08:45 China Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
25 Jan 2021 23:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:30 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
26 Jan 2021 00:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Beula Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Maxixe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Chicoque Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Inhambane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Guilande Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Banga Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:30 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:30 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Afo Mozambique  0.2
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Catembe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Maputo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Aiai Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Cimbene Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Beira Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 20:15 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 20:15 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 20:15 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:00 Canhamba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 23:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 14:45 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 14:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 14:45 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 14:45 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 14:45 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 10:45 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 15:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 22:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:45 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:45 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:45 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 23:30 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 23:30 Machavene Mozambique  0.1
24 Jan 2021 08:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 08:30 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 12:45 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 13:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
25 Jan 2021 14:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:45 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 11:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 11:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 21:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 19:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
24 Jan 2021 14:45 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1