Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOURTEEN-21
in Australia
21 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (21 Jan 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 0.5 m 493 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 0.5 m 493 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

86 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia124 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 21 Jan 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 21 Jan 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia, Australia5,144
+
Indonesia4,885 
Australia259 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia161,343
+
Indonesia142,296 
Timor-Leste2,219 
Australia16,828 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia4,022,283
+
Indonesia3,830,084 
Timor-Leste48,569 
Australia143,630 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 21 Jan 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 21 Jan 2021 12:00 493 60 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Derby Australia  0.5
22 Jan 2021 08:45 Thangoo Australia  0.4
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Kollan I Australia  0.4
22 Jan 2021 08:15 Broome Australia  0.4
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Waterbank Australia  0.3
21 Jan 2021 04:15 Pender Australia  0.3
22 Jan 2021 10:15 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.3
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Pardoo Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Port Hedland Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Wedgefield Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Condon Australia  0.2
24 Jan 2021 04:15 Tampoena Wo Indonesia  0.2
24 Jan 2021 04:15 Wasalangka Indonesia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 The Palms Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Larrakeyah Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Fannie Bay Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Parap Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Darwin Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Nightcliff Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Ludmilla Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Bagot Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Leanyer Australia  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Berrimah Australia  0.1
24 Jan 2021 00:15 Gribble Settlement Australia  0.1