Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (26 Feb 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 79 km/h 0.0 m 188 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 169 km/h 0.2 m 1111 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

169 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Feb 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Feb 2021 00:00 130 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmChristmas Island1,526 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Feb 2021 12:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Feb 2021 00:00 395 -
- - - - - Christmas Island




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Guring, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 26 Feb 2021 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Feb 2021 17:00 Guring Indonesia  0.7
26 Feb 2021 17:00 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.7
27 Feb 2021 16:00 Bandjaragung Indonesia  0.6
27 Feb 2021 16:00 Karangberak Indonesia  0.6
27 Feb 2021 16:00 Putih Indonesia  0.6
27 Feb 2021 16:00 Sawangbalak Indonesia  0.5
26 Feb 2021 22:15 Tampang Indonesia  0.5
26 Feb 2021 18:15 Menango Indonesia  0.5
26 Feb 2021 18:15 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.5
26 Feb 2021 18:15 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.5
26 Feb 2021 18:15 Tarahan Indonesia  0.5
27 Feb 2021 16:15 Kiluan Indonesia  0.4
27 Feb 2021 16:15 Kekatang Indonesia  0.4
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Kolitjaah Indonesia  0.4
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Tjiteureup Indonesia  0.4
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Labuhan Indonesia  0.4
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Kaduperasi Indonesia  0.4
26 Feb 2021 18:00 Babakancibeber Indonesia  0.3
27 Feb 2021 16:15 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.3
27 Feb 2021 16:15 Kalianda Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2021 18:15 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2021 18:15 Sumur Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2021 18:15 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 03:45 Binangoen Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 03:45 Ajah Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2021 02:15 Sindangsari Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2021 02:15 Cijulang Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2021 02:15 Cikalong Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2021 02:15 Pangadaran Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 15:15 Adipala Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 03:45 Chilachap Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 07:30 Domas Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2021 02:30 Petanahan Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2021 02:15 Kaliputjang Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 04:30 Indramaju Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 04:30 Karangampel Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Anjer-Kidu Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Bandaragung Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Tjampang Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Waiharoe Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Belimbing Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Bakau Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 08:30 Kabue Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 08:30 Belowa Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 08:30 Taoabi Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 08:30 Poelaudoea Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2021 06:00 Muarabinuangeun Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:45 Losan Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:45 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 05:45 Klampok Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 07:30 Tanara Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 07:30 Ketapang Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 07:30 Kramat Indonesia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 22:30 Balubuk Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 15:00 Pedes Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 15:00 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 15:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 15:00 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 17:45 Merak Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 15:45 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 15:45 Tipar Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Karbang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Walur Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Pasarpulaupisang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Wainapal Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Krui Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Kerbang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Padangnegeri Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 11:00 Tandjungbaringin Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 09:30 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 08:00 Pahanuma Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 00:00 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 08:00 Babadan Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 08:00 Lingkungsari Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 08:00 Tjiagra Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 06:00 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Tegal Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 05:00 Wanasari Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 13:15 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 09:45 Sigedang Indonesia  0.1
27 Feb 2021 06:15 Plotot Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 08:00 Tjikaret Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 10:00 Petaroekan Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 00:15 Patrol Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 01:00 Kandanghaur Indonesia  0.1
27 Feb 2021 20:15 Karanghawu Indonesia  0.1
27 Feb 2021 20:15 Tjimadja Indonesia  0.1
27 Feb 2021 20:15 Tjiateul Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 08:00 Biha Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 07:00 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.1
26 Feb 2021 10:00 Pemalang Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2021 08:00 Marang Indonesia  0.1