Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GUILLERMO-21
Off-shore
21 Jul 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GUILLERMO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (21 Jul 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 176 km/h 0.4 m 353 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 176 km/h 0.4 m 353 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jul 2021 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jul 2021 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Jul 2021 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jul 2021 06:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jul 2021 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jul 2021 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Jul 2021 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jul 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jul 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jul 2021 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 20 Jul 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jul 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 20 Jul 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 20 Jul 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 21 Jul 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 21 Jul 2021 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jul 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

353 mm

Up to 130 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico131,912 
50-100 mmMexico4,145,276 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jul 2021 12:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jul 2021 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Jul 2021 00:00 147 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 18 Jul 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Jul 2021 12:00 103 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jul 2021 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 19 Jul 2021 00:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 19 Jul 2021 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jul 2021 12:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 19 Jul 2021 18:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 20 Jul 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 20 Jul 2021 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 20 Jul 2021 12:00 179 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 20 Jul 2021 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 21 Jul 2021 00:00 78 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 21 Jul 2021 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 21 Jul 2021 12:00 223 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in San Jose, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Jul 2021 23:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico96,587 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Jul 2021 23:30 San Jose Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 23:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 23:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 21:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 21:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 21:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.4
22 Jul 2021 11:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.4
22 Jul 2021 11:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 22:45 Mulege Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 22:45 Los Dolores Mexico  0.4
21 Jul 2021 23:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 11:15 San Blas Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 11:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 21:30 Novillero Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:45 Liliba Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:15 Datilito Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:15 La Paz Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:30 Loreto Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 20:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:45 Rosario Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 09:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 21:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:15 Ligui Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 Tripui Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 09:45 La Lima Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 22:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 22:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 21:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 21:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 12:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 21:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Chula Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 12:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 12:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:15 La Boca Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 21:45 Marmol Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 21:45 Florida Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 21:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 21:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 22:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 10:15 Altata Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 10:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
22 Jul 2021 09:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 12:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.3
22 Jul 2021 09:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 12:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
19 Jul 2021 12:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.3
20 Jul 2021 21:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 23:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 09:45 Dimas Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 20:30 Barron Mexico  0.3
21 Jul 2021 22:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 19:45 Monteon Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 21:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 19:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
23 Jul 2021 19:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.3
20 Jul 2021 22:15 Joluta Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 09:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
17 Jul 2021 22:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 22:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 22:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 22:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 22:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 22:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
17 Jul 2021 23:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:00 El Real Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Apisa Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2021 21:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2021 21:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:15 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:15 Santiago Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:15 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
24 Jul 2021 07:45 Corrales Mexico  0.2
24 Jul 2021 07:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 22:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2021 22:30 Chola Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2021 22:30 Chamela Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2021 11:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
18 Jul 2021 00:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
18 Jul 2021 00:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 00:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:30 San Telmo Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:30 Pizota Mexico  0.2
24 Jul 2021 07:30 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 09:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 21:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
20 Jul 2021 00:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 10:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 19:45 Bucerias Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 19:45 Maruata Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 10:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 21:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
17 Jul 2021 22:45 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
18 Jul 2021 04:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 21:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:45 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
23 Jul 2021 20:45 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
21 Jul 2021 00:30 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.2
19 Jul 2021 12:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2