Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 00:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.2 m 280 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 0.5 m 838 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

86 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 29 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 10 29 Aug 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 30 Aug 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 31 Aug 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico1,046 
100-250 mmMexico1,855,245 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico33,820,239
+
United States32,406 
Mexico33,787,832 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 175 70 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 597 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 664 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 215 30 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 177 570 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 9 29 Aug 2021 00:00 299 160 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 10 29 Aug 2021 12:00 189 590 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 30 Aug 2021 00:00 356 360 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 302 70 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 31 Aug 2021 00:00 280 1.9 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 00:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2021 00:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 15:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 14:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:15 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2021 19:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 La Playa Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2021 03:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 07:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 23:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 08:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2021 19:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 06:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 00:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 14:30 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 00:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 18:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 05:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 02:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 El Barril Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 20:00 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 20:00 El Marques Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:45 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:30 Azure Vista United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:30 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:30 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:30 Roseville United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:30 Loma Portal United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:30 San Diego United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:30 Coronado United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 14:30 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:15 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:15 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:00 Boal United States  0.1