Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (29 Aug 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 119 km/h 0.3 m 1610 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico315,165 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 137 Few people
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 119 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

1646 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmMexico8,966 
750-1000 mmMexico20,633 
500-750 mmMexico12,005 
250-500 mmMexico511,410 
100-250 mmMexico733,969 
50-100 mmMexico320,815 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 193 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 143 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 179 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 220 130 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 363 360 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 340 30 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 445 140 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 399 280 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 1610 1.3 million
Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Perihuete, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
31 Aug 2021 03:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 19:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 21:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 15:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Santa Marie Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 21:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 05:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 19:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 19:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 01:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 09:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 01:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 21:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 01:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 19:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 21:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 10:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 19:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 01:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 20:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 20:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 03:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:30 San Blas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:30 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:30 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Coronado United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 10:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Azure Vista United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Roseville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Loma Portal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 San Diego United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Boal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:45 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 El Descanso Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:30 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 La Mision Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Erendria Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 18:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Mission Beach United States  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:15 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:30 Encino Solo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:30 Cunano Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:15 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:15 El Marques Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1