Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Sep 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 90 km/h 0.3 m 103 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 169 km/h 0.6 m 647 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

169 km/h

Up to 1 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico1,265 
Tropical StormMexico663,471 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 169 Few people
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 140 Few people
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 130 Few people
- - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 90 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMexico00
+
250-500 mmMexico6,928 
100-250 mmMexico434,426 
50-100 mmMexico174,007 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 290 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 168 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 09 Sep 2021 00:00 181 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 09 Sep 2021 06:00 262 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 09 Sep 2021 12:00 157 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 09 Sep 2021 18:00 209 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 10 10 Sep 2021 00:00 328 10 thousand
- - - Mexico
Blue 11 10 Sep 2021 06:00 217 20 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 10 Sep 2021 12:00 108 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 10 Sep 2021 18:00 103 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in La Fortuna, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico56 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico8,110 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 01:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.6
10 Sep 2021 01:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.6
10 Sep 2021 01:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.6
10 Sep 2021 12:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 12:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 12:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 06:15 El Pescadero Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 09:00 Cunano Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 09:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 17:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.3
09 Sep 2021 23:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 13:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 00:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 19:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 19:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 05:45 Tripui Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 05:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:30 Datilito Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:30 La Paz Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:30 Rosario Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 El Tule Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 15:15 Quinones Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 23:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 08:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 04:15 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 21:45 La Choya Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 21:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 17:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:15 Altata Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 19:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 16:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2021 01:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 19:15 Marmol Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 19:15 Florida Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:15 Dimas Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 21:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 19:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 19:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 19:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Molino Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 03:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 02:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 08:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
11 Sep 2021 08:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 18:45 La Lima Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 09:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 22:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 00:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:45 Loreto Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 07:45 Ligui Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 22:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 02:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 19:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 19:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:15 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:15 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 11:15 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.2
09 Sep 2021 23:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 El Segundo United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Manhattan Beach United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Hermosa Beach United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Clifton United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Redondo Beach United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Rolling Hills United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 San Pedro United States  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:45 Wilmington United States  0.2
09 Sep 2021 20:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 10:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:15 San Jose Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 08:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 06:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 06:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 06:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 19:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 19:45 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 19:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:00 Joluta Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:15 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:15 Chula Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 06:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 11:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 01:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:15 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 06:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 06:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 11:45 Chamela Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 02:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 10:30 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 19:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 19:45 El Real Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 19:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 19:45 Apisa Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 19:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:00 Ipala Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 20:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:30 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 01:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 11:15 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:15 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 06:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Azure Vista United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Mission Beach United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Roseville United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Loma Portal United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 San Diego United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Coronado United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Boal United States  0.1
11 Sep 2021 19:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 05:15 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 12:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 02:45 Calvario Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 02:45 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 05:45 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 07:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 07:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2021 06:30 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 22:15 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 02:15 Pizota Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:00 Signal Hill United States  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:00 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:00 Surfside United States  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:00 Seal Beach United States  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
12 Sep 2021 02:00 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
11 Sep 2021 21:00 Maruata Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Erendria Mexico  0.1
11 Sep 2021 22:30 Corrales Mexico  0.1